She's been a bad girl. She's like a chemical. Though you try to stop it, she's like a narcotic. You wanna torture her. You wanna talk to her. All the things you bought for her, putting up your temp'rature. Pump it up until you can feel it. Pump it up when you don't really need it. Elvis Costello [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard Well it's time to get back in the habit of doing this every two weeks. The schedule was interrupted over the holidays and then again by my annual outlook piece. The economic data released over the last two weeks was not particularly inspiring, not that hard data is what has been egging on the old animal spirits. [...]
Chinese officials reported that exports fell 6.1% in December, following a downward revised 1.5% decline in November that was originally reported as a 0.1% gain. While the media talks about disappointment after it appeared Chinese exports might have been finally breaking out, and therefore global growth, December’s result simply continues the same pattern repeating over and over again. Over the [...]
Durable goods continue to show that there is no difference between the economy of 2015 and the one being described by these numbers in 2016. To the “transitory” narrative, it is the death blow, which is why so many central banks and central bankers are busy exploring other options (while as quietly as they can writing down the future economy). [...]
The “rising dollar” has been much less disruptive since February 11. In terms of the real economy, since “rising dollar” is a euphemism for “dollar” shortage we would expect trade and especially international trade to be most affected by it where “dollars” are the primary global currency. A pause in “dollar” disruption, at least outwardly as direct disorder, should allow [...]
Speaking yesterday in Reno, Nevada, San Francisco Fed President (and CEO) John C. Williams delivered remarks on the normalization of monetary policy. So as not to put the cart before the horse, Williams noted that first the economy must do so before the FOMC can even consider the same for their self-assigned tasks. I’ll start with a quick overview of [...]
Last week, Japan reported GDP growth of 1.7% in Q1. That was much better than expected and led to all the usual extrapolations about how bright the future is in Japan now that QQE is working (and NIRP since that was started during the quarter). In this devalued economic world of central banking for the sake of central banking, context [...]
Global Growth Recession risks are low and growth should improve in 2016. Excess supply is especially apparent in the raw materials/commodities sectors. This state of overcapacity/supply and a strong dollar combined from 2014-2015 to create an environment of falling prices and sluggish growth in global manufacturing. The services sector continues to perform well. Continued expansion in the US coupled with a recovering [...]
I don't often write about global geopolitics because I think, in general, investors spend too much time worrying about things they can't control or aren't going to happen or wouldn't matter much if they did. The best example is the Middle East which has been a mess my entire life and long before it for that matter. Changing your investments [...]
Are we approaching a surge in global trade led by the strengthening US currency? Here is a list of countries and their economy's reliance on exports. Here you can find countries that will likely benefit from a pick up in trade. As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns. Click here to sign up for our free [...]
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