One of the primary pillars of even the tepid “recovery” of this cycle is undoubtedly auto sales. We can have a debate as to the influence of monetary policy in this arena, especially as auto loans have (along with student loans) been practically the only direct conduit of credit into the real economy. Clearly, despite the heavy flow there, auto [...]
For the longest time, Jupiter was never thought to play much of a role in celestial mechanics of the much smaller scales in the solar system. Comets and asteroids may not seem to be significant to solar reality, but to those of us that reside on Earth there is much to appreciate about even planetary gravity and the survival of [...]
The world of orthodox economics is populated by generic assumptions. The biggest and most dangerous is that of “aggregate demand” which posits that any economic activity is perfectly substituted for any other economic activity. Since there is no distinction among “what” is taking place and more importantly “why”, that has led economic policy and especially monetary policy toward command management. [...]
There isn’t a whole lot to say about the payroll report this month, as there hasn’t been much that is different. The Establishment Survey continues to dazzle, while the Household Survey lags (factoring the monthly volatility) and the labor force itself undercounts with the exception of what looks suspiciously like a discontinuity for January (when the labor force jumped by [...]
Despite all evidence to the contrary, an imbalanced ledger of data that grows more imbalanced by the month, commentary continues to describe QE as pro-growth stimulus. As usual, the purest form of rebuke to that sentiment can be found in Japan where QQE has performed a global service just not in the way its theorists and practitioners had envisioned. The [...]
Janet Yellen’s testimony concluded, no one gets any more clarity about what the FOMC actually thinks. However, that itself is in one sense an indication as she vacillated a little too much about making a firm commitment to either the recovery or “transitory” oil prices. QE3 ended months ago and we are seven years into this thing already, but there [...]
For almost a year now, even before 2014’s version of winter, the constant theme has been one of growing and robust jobs. It had become so ubiquitous as to infiltrate every economic data point, including the housing market. There was some correlation last year between the sentiment about payroll expansion and at least a tepid rebound in home sales, but [...]
I sincerely look forward to the day, which I believe wholeheartedly will come, when scant attention is paid to whatever monetary officials make for official statements about official positions. The times being what they are, however, demand inconsistency be answered. That is especially true wherever the FOMC has taken not just to being the “lender of last resort” as supposedly [...]
One of the primary criticisms I have leveled against economic interpretations based solely on statistics like GDP is that they are relative in the narrowest sense. GDP especially compares one quarter to the prior, meaning that it is susceptible to those that extrapolate short-term trends. In this current age of monetary elongation in the “business cycle”, that is a dangerous [...]
I know too well that the current thinking on the economy and labor is that any activity is “good” activity, and thus better something happens than resources remain idle. I think that notion is easily disproved by common sense, as waste is not just “wrong” but harmful over the longer run. But economics is impervious to anything related to the [...]
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