To start this week, Ma Jun, chief economist for the PBOC, gave an email interview where he expressed his belief that the yuan will be more volatile but in either direction. Many still took those comments as if it were a veiled prescription toward devaluation. In the near term, it is more likely there will be "two way volatility," or [...]
The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 was updated this weekend through August 13, confirming that market values in those “liquid” names fell below the December 16 levels for the worst prices since before QE3. There isn’t any further information on the reasons for the delay, though revisions to the BofAML High Yield indices suggest an answer. On Friday, the CCC and [...]
China apparently shocked some people last week by allowing the Yuan to fall 3.5% against the dollar. I don't know why in the world they would be shocked since we've known for months - heck almost a year now - that capital has been leaving China. I wrote about it back in March so it isn't like it was exactly a [...]
Top News Headlines China devalues the Yuan. China lets Yuan float. China supports Yuan. Something happens in the Chinese currency market. Oil prices continue to fall. US raises flag over Havana. Dissidents' invitation gets lost in the mail. Tesla to sell more stock, profits elusive. Okay, very elusive. Okay, not frigging likely anytime soon. Dow chart gets a death cross; [...]
The repo rate today ticked slightly lower for the second consecutive day, suggesting, as the PBOC’s yuan fix last night, that the heaviest part of the “dollar” run has abated. The repo rates are still very high, though, which does not suggest a terminus in the “dollar” retreat; at least not yet. All three classes remain above IOER, with MBS [...]
By the behavior of the Chinese yuan itself, given the financial size here, we can readily assume that any “dollar” problem that is clearly causing the PBOC’s actions are sizable. Currencies throughout Asia are being roiled not unlike 1997 and oil prices sunk to a new “recovery” low. While that all suggests far away turmoil relevant only to those foreign [...]
It’s amazing what will be ignored or forgotten in order to try to explain the state of the world when it strays so far beyond bounded conception. Commentary views the state of economic world as wholly separate dots, disparate systems only tangentially connected through nebulous trade terms and hard currencies. The world was once that way, though perhaps even then [...]
While everyone remains sure that the PBOC is actively trying to “allow” the yuan to depreciate as some kind of export catalyst, the “dollar” continues to show (not suggest) otherwise. Liquidity and “dollar” markets are still roiled rather than soothed, especially the US treasury market where the bid right at the open (what look very much like continued collateral calls) [...]
Everything in dollar-denomination yesterday was lifted by the usual M&A debasement and quite sour data from China. The latter was taken as if there would be renewed “stimulus” in the near term. The “dollar” took a break from its recent destructive nature, as commodities rebounded as did currency proxies and even gold. Stocks in the US and elsewhere jumped and [...]
Going back well more than a year now, every time the PBOC takes some kind of action it is classified immediately as “stimulus.” Last July, the Chinese central bank opened its PLF to China Development Bank and it was heralded as a renewed age of traditional monetarism if in unfamiliar formatting. In November, the first rate cuts since 2012 were [...]
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