Suzy Khimm has a post at the Washington Post's Wonkblog that says if you're worried about the fiscal cliff, you are by definition a Keynesian: The reason the fiscal cliff is such a threat to 2013′s economy isn’t that it’s too little deficit reduction — it’s that it’s too much all at once, totaling about $720 billion, or 5.1 percent of GDP [...]
The global economy is struggling. Markets are up significantly over the past year. The US Presidential election is a toss up. The fiscal cliff is a debate. Monetary policy is experimental. There is a certain lack of clarity. Adding to the uncertainty, the global economic challenges come with accompanying central bank interventions. A major area of debate recently is the path [...]
The S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) has had a rough week. Not only did the index break its 50-day moving average, it also ripped through its short-term up-trend line. But with market sentiment quickly reversing, this downturn could be short-lived. The index is up 16.33% year-to-date. The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index ((RSP)) is set up so that every stock in [...]
As the Northeast prepares for Hurricane Sandy, markets are preparing for their own perfect storm. The first feeder bands are coming ashore now and whether we feel the full brunt depends to a large degree on how the political class responds. The Fed is already in full FEMA mode with results similar to those witnessed after another Hurricane, Katrina. Ben [...]
By now commentators have focused on the rather dramatic reversal in government “contributions” to GDP for the initial Q3 2012 estimate. Nearly all of that government spending came in the defense category, so that will get reversed rather quickly – sequestration or not. The private economy continues to move in the wrong direction, as GDP growth ex-government was the lowest [...]
Earnings season for Q3 2012 has been underwhelming. It appears as if the macro decay of the first half of the year is settling in at the corporate level. With about 20% of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings so far, revenue growth has actually underperformed even the re-adjusted expectations from just last month. Initial estimates of operating earnings for [...]
September rebound and the feelgood central bank mania, such that it was, is over. Germany looks to have finally been dragged into the economic morass by the periphery: October European Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 vs. Exp. 46.5 (Prev. 46.1) - European PMI Services: 46.2 vs. Exp. 46.4 (Prev. 46.1) - European PMI Composite: 45.8 vs. Exp. 46.5 (Prev. 46.1); lowest since June [...]
“They will have no choice but to keep intervening,” said Irene Cheung, a currency strategist in Singapore at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The Hong Kong dollar’s strength reflects the capital flows we see into most Asian currencies.” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-23/hong-kong-dollar-trades-near-peg-limit-intervention-speculated Policy makers from around the world have bemoaned the economic threat of stronger exchange rates as asset purchases by the Federal [...]
The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy (71%), but also contains Agriculture (14%), Industrial Metals (7%), Livestock (4%), and Precious Metals (4%). The index currently sits atop support, but its shaky at best. GSG is up 2.49% for all of 2012. The Dow Jones-AIG Energy Total Return Index ((JJE)) consists of Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and [...]
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