I've been writing for over a year about the economy rebalancing back to its pre-COVID trends. The massive fiscal expansion during COVID and the Fed's accommodation of that spending via QE is what caused the spike in prices over the last 18 months. Yes, there were supply issues too but the size of the demand shock overwhelmed the supply issues. [...]
The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The market has factored in a small probability that they do nothing and leave rates alone, but they'll probably do what's expected because they've spent the last couple of months preparing the markets for exactly this [...]
Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down [...]
The inflation report last week was met with a big sigh of relief by investors. Stocks and bonds rallied as the Fed's Whip Inflation Now project seems to be finally bearing some fruit. In reality, inflation peaked months ago but the Fed hadn't really caught on yet - they're a little slow - and the market has been fearing that [...]
I am a visual person so I use charts to see the trends in markets. Tactical changes to your portfolio are difficult because there is so much noise out there it is hard to know what you should act on and what you should ignore. Charts make the job easier by eliminating the noise. Follow the trends. Own things that [...]
What's your outlook for this year? I've heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you're reading this hoping I'll let you have a peek at my crystal ball, you're going to be disappointed. Because I don't have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don't know [...]
I don't know how many times I've seen blog posts or articles or Tweets about negative consumer sentiment over the last year. These articles rightly point out that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is sitting near (or at a few months ago) 50 year lows. This fact is taken as a negative for the economy and therefore stocks. [...]
Note: This will be my last full commentary for 2022. I will spend the month of December on research for next year, visiting with family, and taking some much-needed time off. I will still be watching markets, as will all the other members of the Alhambra team and if something happens which requires me to communicate, I'll certainly do that. [...]
When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero-COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the [...]
Is the US economy on the verge of recession? Is it already in recession? We have several indications that the US economy is slowing and at least one that points to recession soon and maybe now. From the Conference Board's release of its Leading Economic Indicators last week: “The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy [...]
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