One thing I can tell you for certain about last week's big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday [...]
Jerome Powell has said repeatedly that the Fed's goal is to get rates higher and leave them there for an extended period of time. He believes that the mistake of the 70s was that once higher rates snuffed out inflation, the Fed cut rates too quickly and the inflation returned. I think the mistake of the 70s was that, by [...]
The FOMC met last week and did what everyone expected them to do - raised the Fed Funds rate by 0.75%. The bond and stock markets reacted not to this action but to the commentary provided by the committee in its statement and by Chairman Jerome Powell at his post meeting press conference. The former had a new phrase, a [...]
I have often been accused over the years of being too optimistic and I will plead guilty to having a little rose-colored tint in my glasses. I am an optimist by nature and I search constantly for good things to write about. There are more than enough people out there willing to tell you the world is coming to an [...]
With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, [...]
Did Jerome Powell blink last Friday? It was just before the market open Friday and interest rates were jumping higher, as they had all week. The 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.33%, another 11 basis points higher than the previous close and 32 basis points higher than the previous week's close. Then, "the article" hit the front page of [...]
With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, [...]
Markets were rather volatile last week. That's a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn't surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain [...]
The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. Interest rates are going up they said, no matter how much it hurts, [...]
Goodbye and good riddance to the third quarter of 2022. That was one of the wildest 3 months I've experienced in my 40 years of trading and investing. The quarter started off great with the S&P 500 rising 14% from July 1 to August 16 but ended with a 17% swan dive into the end of the quarter. And we [...]
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