I have been visiting the Asheville, NC area since I was in college back in the late 70s and spent a lot of time up there hiking and camping. I have been back repeatedly over the years and Alhambra has a number of clients in that area. I have spoken with people in the Asheville and eastern TN area and [...]
Unfortunately, I will not be posting a detailed commentary this week. I live in SC, near Augusta, GA and we were hit pretty hard by Hurricane Helene. Our power has been out since early Friday morning but the good news is that our damage was confined to a lot of down tree limbs and one, quite large, tree uprooted in the [...]
Well, they did it. The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points last week and indicated that there is likely more to come. Stock investors liked it, bidding up small cap stocks (S&P 600) by 2.25%, large caps (S&P 500) by 1.4%, and the NASDAQ by 1.5%. Most other markets also did as expected with emerging market [...]
It's Fed week again, when the monetary mandarins gather to set interest rates and guide the economy according to the latest 3-year plan (central planning may not have worked for the communists but our people are smarter). This is a quarterly meeting when they'll sift through the tea leaves or gaze into their crystal balls or whatever they do to [...]
Have more than thou showest, Speak less than thou knowest, Lend less than thou owest, Ride more than thou goest, Learn more than thou trowest, Set less than thou throwest; Leave thy drink and thy whore, And keep in-a-door, And thou shalt have more Than two tens to a score. King Lear, Act 1, Scene 4 My grandmother was [...]
You're going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for "the" yield curve to uninvert (which isn't a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a [...]
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. The time has [...]
Conventional wisdom: US growth stocks continue to dominate the US stock market. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks for a long time and the last year of AI driven gains shows that isn't changing. US stocks have outperformed the rest of the world and that isn't going to change because we have the best companies. The dollar is strong and [...]
I can calculate the movements of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of people. - Sir Isaac Newton, upon losing a fortune on South Sea Company stock Newton's Laws of Motion An object at rest remains at rest, and an object in motion remains in motion at constant speed and in a straight line unless acted on by an [...]
The Senior Loan Officer Survey came out yesterday and I'm sure you've been waiting on pins and needles, as I have, to see the results. Okay, maybe you had better things to do. I sure hope so because it isn't exactly riveting. Here's the description from the Fed's website: Survey of up to eighty large domestic banks and twenty-four U.S. [...]
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