As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today's environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to [...]
There has been a lot of talk over the last few months about the US economy slowing but there is scant evidence of it in the economic data. The latest lack of evidence came last Friday with the release of the September employment report which was quite a bit better than expected. The establishment survey showed the economy added 254k [...]
I wanted to update my previous post to add some groups helping with Hurricane Helene relief. I've highlighted some animal charities at the top; thanks Barbara for reminding me that the animals are stressed too. Please donate if you can. We will be posting more on the relief efforts over the coming weeks. I went through many hurricanes as a [...]
I have been visiting the Asheville, NC area since I was in college back in the late 70s and spent a lot of time up there hiking and camping. I have been back repeatedly over the years and Alhambra has a number of clients in that area. I have spoken with people in the Asheville and eastern TN area and [...]
Unfortunately, I will not be posting a detailed commentary this week. I live in SC, near Augusta, GA and we were hit pretty hard by Hurricane Helene. Our power has been out since early Friday morning but the good news is that our damage was confined to a lot of down tree limbs and one, quite large, tree uprooted in the [...]
Well, they did it. The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points last week and indicated that there is likely more to come. Stock investors liked it, bidding up small cap stocks (S&P 600) by 2.25%, large caps (S&P 500) by 1.4%, and the NASDAQ by 1.5%. Most other markets also did as expected with emerging market [...]
It's Fed week again, when the monetary mandarins gather to set interest rates and guide the economy according to the latest 3-year plan (central planning may not have worked for the communists but our people are smarter). This is a quarterly meeting when they'll sift through the tea leaves or gaze into their crystal balls or whatever they do to [...]
Have more than thou showest, Speak less than thou knowest, Lend less than thou owest, Ride more than thou goest, Learn more than thou trowest, Set less than thou throwest; Leave thy drink and thy whore, And keep in-a-door, And thou shalt have more Than two tens to a score. King Lear, Act 1, Scene 4 My grandmother was [...]
You're going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for "the" yield curve to uninvert (which isn't a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a [...]
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. The time has [...]
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