Top News Headline Stocks end down after wild 700 point range trading. US ends oil export ban. Crickets chirp. Republicans debate, Democrats debate, the nation shudders. Star Wars: The Force Awakens shatters box office records. I visit the mall to Christmas shop, discover the obesity epidemic is not solved, mirrors in short supply. Economic News Fed hikes rates by 25 [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The incoming economic reports ran two to one negative over the last two weeks, continuing the trend we’ve seen all year. That’s one of the worst two week stretches we’ve seen all year. Janet Yellen has been telling us for over a year that changes in policy were “data dependent” but that is [...]
So far there has been neither (reindeer) hide nor (snowy white) hair of Santa this December. The Grinch, on the other hand, has hardly been scarce and month-to-date, through the 11th, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials have contracted -3.19% and -2.43%, respectively. Bonds have not been a particularly great place to be either, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate [...]
Top News Headlines Kinder Morgan, Freeport McMoran, Anglo-American cut dividends Climate deal reached in Paris. Not legally enforceable, all voluntary, no one cares. Dow, Dupont agree to merge, divest and keep Wall Street employed. Junk bond fund halts redemptions. Economic News China loosens Yuan peg to the dollar. Oil hits new lows. Jobless claims hit 5 month high. Retail sales [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. However, we are watching credit spreads very carefully because the BofA ML US High Yield Master II OAS is approaching 7.5%. That is a level that we think should trigger a [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The incoming economic data continues to disappoint. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index set a record this year for the length of time it stayed in the negative column (data less than expected) of over 200 consecutive days. Even in the depths of the Great Recession we never had more than 100 consecutive days [...]
Top News Headlines 1. Terrorist attack in San Bernardino; 14 dead, 21 wounded. Husband and wife terrorist team killed in shootout. President Obama to address nation. 2. ISIS claims terrorists were supporters. 3. OPEC meets, no agreement on output. 4. Wild ride as US data and ECB roil markets. Economic News 1. ECB cuts rates, extends QE, markets demand more. [...]
Top News Headlines Turkey and Russia spar over airspace. Russian promises retaliation for fighter shoot down. Brussels shuts down for days in terrorist hunt. Chicago policeman charged with murder. Stocks little changed on the week, no follow through from last week's rally. Pfizer, Allergan agree to merge for tax benefits, politicians posture, threaten. Economic News Japan unveils new stimulus measures. [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The economic data continues to come in largely less than expected with the manufacturing/industrial parts of the economy faring worst. In what may be a developing trend, housing starts were less than expected and with last home sales reports makes for a short string of weaker reports. Generally, real estate has been trending [...]
Top News Headlines Paris terrorists dispatched; hostage crisis in Mali ends with 27 dead. Stocks have a big week, up over 3%. Fed minutes are dovishly hawk-like. United Health says losing millions on Obamacare, may pull out of exchanges next year. Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard released from US prison. Square prices IPO at half off last private funding round giving [...]
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