Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market. This isn’t [...]
The way you hear it nowadays, the dollar just can’t catch a break. If it’s not a load of “V’s” indicated by some obscure data point (like the otherworldly spike in US home ownership levels), then it is Jay Powell who is clearly gunning for the US currency. He can’t kill it fast enough, having had more than enough of [...]
For a brief few weeks, reopening euphoria gripped the bond market. Well, not the bond market exactly, it was limited to the commentary surrounding a minor back up in nominal yields. Really, not much. This culminated in the May 2020 payroll report which was released on June 5. That was the one which “surprised” everyone because, apparently, nobody pays attention [...]
On December 3, 2015, Europe’s central bank, the ECB, supposedly disappointed markets especially those trading European equities. Losses were large because Mario Draghi’s gang of policymakers merely extended its first QE rather than accelerating the pace of purchases. Investors, such as they were, had been told to expect more than that. To make matters worse, according to the mainstream narrative, [...]
Our Fortress strategic asset allocation includes 5 distinct asset classes: The Fortress allocation has historically produced better risk-adjusted returns than the traditional 60% stocks/40% bonds allocation. The bond allocation is varied to adjust the risk of the portfolio. A Fortress allocation with 20% bonds has produced a higher return with lower standard deviation (volatility) than the 60/40 portfolio. In a [...]
----------WHERE---------- AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5QApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ----------WHO---------- Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, slowing it way down à la Major Marquis Warren. Artwork by David Parkins, descendant of Arthur Eld ancient King of All-World. Podcast intro and outro [...]
These are not numbers that are consistent with a robust rebound. In fact, they don’t indicate very much of one at all. IHS Markit’s flash PMI’s for July 2020 instead look way too much like the sentiment indicators in Germany and Japan. Though they are now back near 50, both services and manufacturing, that doesn’t actually indicate what everyone seems [...]
AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5Q Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Head of Obscure Movie References. Artwork by David Parkins.[Emil’s Summary] We implicitly assume monetization of debt by central banks is inflationary. But inflation depends on the [...]
After raising the specter of a rebound stall, the idea before limited to Japan and Germany was abruptly given further weight today by US jobless claims numbers. For the first time since the peak at the end of March, the weekly tally of initial filings increased from the prior week. The estimate for the week of July 18, 2020, came [...]
AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/G2H1tjTm1mA Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Head of Obscure Movie References. Artwork by David Parkins.[Emil’s Summary] We implicitly assume monetization of debt by central banks is inflationary. But inflation depends on the [...]
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