Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

If Inflation, Why Not Christmas From Mexico?

By |2021-08-25T17:16:28-04:00August 25th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The incidences of what’s downright bizarre have curiously become more frequent. Sign of the times. Pick your realm or timetable, there’s so much going wrong while completely disconnected from the “official” description of, or explanation for, whatever. Along these lines, did the US VP just warn America’s children from Singapore that Santa Claus’ legendary trade will be delayed, perhaps canceled?Summer [...]

Neither Coincidence Nor Nothing: Fedwire Six Months Later

By |2021-08-24T19:46:09-04:00August 24th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was one of those little things that really shouldn’t have made any difference whatsoever, an interesting if trivial little nugget left behind for only obsessive scholars to care any about. Late in the morning of February 24, 2021, Fedwire shutdown. The fact a couple hours inactive snowballed into something bigger, we wondered if this would end up being indicative [...]

They’ve Lost That Loving Feeling

By |2021-08-24T17:56:17-04:00August 24th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The recovery, or reflation, was sort of sailing along until suddenly it wasn’t. At least that was the impression anyone would’ve gotten from pretty much every mainstream source. The reality of the (global) economy’s rebound from last year’s recession was a touch more nuanced, having actually struggled quite a lot between Uncle Sam’s Helicopter #1 and #2; the hadn’t begun [...]

Behind, Inflation’s Best Days

By |2021-08-23T19:55:58-04:00August 23rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Slowdown, yes, but by how much? The inflation argument has been forced to change yet again after having been put together by expectations for a “red hot” economy to stay red hot for a prolonged period. That’s no longer in the data, as even the most robust of indications – such as sentiment – have clearly cooled off. What’s left, [...]

SO F-ing Riotous

By |2021-08-23T18:04:15-04:00August 23rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

To go back only to last November, lost amidst the elections and then understandably overwhelmed by vaccine euphoria, the SOFR saga took an expected turn. It was predictable especially given the realities of the situation behind this unforced string of errors. Central bankers and their Economists are, we’re constantly told, the best and brightest, these most capable of monetary stewards [...]

Global Inflation In Japan Does Not Speak German

By |2021-08-20T16:08:47-04:00August 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Being able to compare European inflation rates with their American counterparts helps expose what’s driving the latter and it’s not inflationary currency. Comparing both of those inflation regimes with the Japanese simply exposes the Bank of Japan and QE. This was perfectly obvious before the Base 2020 CPI estimates came about.Central banks, we’re always told, possess the printing press of [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 95, Part 2: Not Just Transitory, Transitioning ‘Inflation’

By |2021-08-19T19:57:07-04:00August 19th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

95.2 Transitory inflation? No, already TRANSITIONED!  ———Ep 95.2 Summary———A review of July's HUGE increase in consumer prices. We conclude these price surges are due to supply problems, base comparison effects and mostly Uncle Sam stimmy checks. None of which are permanent changes to the situation of monetary malfunction and economic depression. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep [...]

COVID Copper, or China Syndrome?

By |2021-08-19T19:52:24-04:00August 19th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Copper, like lumber, had been the star of the space. Each had rocketed upward beginning last fall representing, for many, the leading edge of the inflationary wave sure to follow. The two garnered that much attention as well as given this much importance because the rest of the commodity class hadn’t really come close to matching their meteoric scale.It was [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 95, Part 1: How Tbills Tell You A Lot About Inflation’s Potential (lack thereof)

By |2021-08-18T20:48:05-04:00August 18th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

95.1 Why Do High CPI Readings NOT Mean Inflation?  ———Ep 95.1 Summary———Inflation is a broad, sustained monetary phenomenon. Price deviations in a narrow set of economic sectors, though they last months, are just that: price deviations. Today's high CPI-readings will in all likelihood be subsumed by the global monetary disorder, like in 2008 and 2011. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ [...]

A TIC Trio of More Serious Deflation Potential: Asset Rebound, Banks Can’t Borrow T-bills From Foreigners, And The China Cringe Which Goes Along

By |2021-08-18T20:41:43-04:00August 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury Department’s TIC update for the month of June 2021 was, well, interesting. Not in a good way, either (post-2014, is it ever actually good?) There are just too many nuggets to digest in one sitting, so here I’ll merely go over three major developments: an update to the May 2021 big dollar warning; a big, nasty wince given [...]

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