Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 56; Part 3: A Dollar Late And A Treasury Short(age)

By |2021-03-18T18:27:38-04:00March 18th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

56.3 Treasuries: Standard vs. Eurodollar Explanation———Part 3 Summary———Learn the difference between an orthodox-economics and a shadow-money view of US Treasuries. The mainstream says, 'Too many Treasuries!' and 'Emerging markets in danger!' Is that true? ———Episode 56 Intro——— Space, the final metaphor. Why do central bankers offer spirographic, retrograde answers? Because they operate within a Ptolemaic paradigm – a geocentric model [...]

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TGA & RRP, Bills Fed Up

By |2021-03-17T19:36:37-04:00March 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the 4-week Treasury bill equivalent yield traversed the so-called RRP “floor” back in 2017, hardly anyone noticed. With rates nominally rising due to the Federal Reserve’s historically dovish hawkish normalization push, it was all a jumbled mess. What if the 4-week bill rate (or 3-month) was somewhat less than this RRP thing-y, they were all moving anyway.Even as the [...]

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FOMC Statement Makes A Statement Without Really Knowing It

By |2021-03-17T18:57:56-04:00March 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Oh, the irony. Recall Janet Yellen’s plight, circa early 2015. Oil prices were “unexpectedly” crashing raining on her recovery-like parade. The Federal Reserve, Yellen as its Chairman, was about to embark on an ambitious program of regular every-meeting rate hikes to head off, its models assumed, the coming inflationary bump which was to confirm full if belated monetary policy success. [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 56; Part 2: M&M(2)s, (Inflation) Melts In Your Mouth, Not At Hand

By |2021-03-17T16:51:20-04:00March 17th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

56.2 Is The Money Boom Is Already Here? NO!———Part 2 Summary——— Learn why a HISTORIC surge of M2 money supply is NOWHERE near-enough to rescue the world economy. Across a group of mostly rich nations M2 and M3 are at multi-decade highs. And yet millions remain unemployed. What's missing? Money! ———Episode 56 Intro——— Space, the final metaphor. Why do central [...]

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Spending Here, Production There, and What Autos Have To Do With It

By |2021-03-16T16:26:11-04:00March 16th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the global inflation picture remains fixed at firmly normal (as in, disinflationary), US retail sales by contrast have been highly abnormal. You’d think given that, the consumer price part of the economic equation would, well, equate eventually price-wise. Consumers are spending, prices should be heading upward at a noticeable rate. To begin with, consumer spending – as pictured by [...]

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Looking Past Gigantic Base Effects To China’s (Really) Struggling Economy

By |2021-03-15T18:19:34-04:00March 15th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese were first to go down because they had been first to shut down, therefore one year further on they’ll be the first to skew all their economic results when being compared to it. These obvious base effects will, without further scrutiny, make analysis slightly more difficult. What we want to know is how the current data fits with [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 56; Part 1: What’s Special About Repo Specialness

By |2021-03-16T16:27:57-04:00March 15th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

56.1 Treasury Selloff Submerges Repo Market Under Zero ———Part 1 Summary——— Learn why rates in the repurchase agreement market went negative. What might it mean for economic recovery, not only in the United States but globally? Learn about 2013 and 2020 when repo securities also "traded special". Jeff Snider offers two explanations, one benign (sort of). The other? Malign. ———Episode [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 55: What Did They Say?

By |2021-03-12T17:58:34-05:00March 12th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

55.0 Live Reaction: What Central Banks Should TargetJeff Snider reacts LIVE! to a Martin Wolf column in the Financial Times. Wolf ponders what central banks should target (e.g. inflation, asset prices, social justice, nominal GDP). Incredibly at no point in the article was targeting actual money supply considered. WILD! ———SPONSOR——— But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, do you direct [...]

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Our Global Inflation Tour Chock Full of Normal

By |2021-03-12T17:48:30-05:00March 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It really is about abnormality. What I mean by that is, contrary to popular imagination fed by the Fed and other central banks, ever since 2008 the inflation paradigm has changed. The first global financial crisis (GFC1) has proven time and again how it wasn’t a one-off, and since it was a monetary breakdown (global dollar shortage) that’s been permanent [...]

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JOLTS Revisions: Much Better Reopening, But Why Didn’t It Last?

By |2021-03-11T19:49:16-05:00March 11th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to newly revised BLS benchmarks, the labor market might have been a little bit worse than previously thought during the worst of last year’s contraction. Coming out of it, the initial rebound, at least, seems to have been substantially better – either due to government checks or, more likely, American businesses in the initial reopening phase eager to get [...]

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