What would you think if I told you the price of an existing house and a new house in this country were negatively correlated? (Case/Shiller HPI only measures resale). That sounds impossible and I would argue to my grave that it is certainly impossible over the long term. But... What happens when your house appreciates significantly in a short [...]
Here are some of the headline sentiments I am seeing: consumer confidence rises consumer confidence rebounds consumer confidence rises for the first time in 4 months consumer is optimistic Let's take this with a grain of salt. Last months initial number was 102.6. This month's number is 102.0. Last months print of 102.6 was revised down to 99.1. Therefore we [...]
Not a good report: This continues the theme of a strong Q3 and weaker Q4 and it disappointed relative to consensus. New orders were showing some strength and divergence from general activity, but plunged back in line with the weak current environment. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to [...]
New home sales have been in an uptrend for the past 15 months. That trend is slowing and has perhaps come to an end. In October, homes sold at a rate of 679,000 units per year or just above the long term average of 656,000 units. The median price continues to come down. Prices dropped just over 3% from September [...]
We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]
Chicago Fed Activities Index An expected drop in Oct versus strong Sept. We are near concerning levels which would be below -.5. Fuel Prices Continuing down. Existing Home Sales Sales are down again and inventory is up. This is all about affordability. Many home owners are locked into their home because of the large difference between their existing mortgage and [...]
"After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in October." LEI signaling a shallow recession. The index is down 3.3% in the last 3 months and -.8% in October. I hate to compare cycles, but the machine does and there are certainly similarities. The similarities became apparent with the release of CPI last week. In June of 2006 [...]
Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]
Industrial production continues to show negative growth. This was perhaps the most important release of a busy week. It was atleast the one that had the greatest effect on GDPNow (unfortunately to the downside). This month is much about the auto industry. There have been some headlines about Americans broadly shunning EV's and inventory building on parking lots. The reasoning [...]
There's been a 4-week upswing in claims with the current week having the largest number of additional claims. There are 31,000 more claims this week than a month ago. Another month like this and we'll be looking at the highest number of claims in the past 2 years. The absolute level of claims is not concerning, just noting the shift [...]
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