As is my usual practice, this will be my last commentary for the year barring big news (and most "news" isn't, especially that of the market variety). While I won't be writing for the next month, that doesn't mean I won't be working. I use the month of December to catch up on my research reading (books and academic papers) [...]
I don't spend a lot of time trying to predict the future, mostly because, as I pointed out just last week, I'm not very good at it. There's no shame in that and it doesn't impair my ability to invest; the gift of prophecy is not necessary. A couple of weeks ago, right before the election I speculated on what [...]
To everything turn, turn, turn There is a season turn, turn, turn And a time to every purpose under Heaven A time to be born, a time to die A time to plant, a time to reap A time to kill, a time to heal A time to laugh, a time to weep To everything turn, turn, turn There is [...]
But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions... - Alan Greenspan, The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society, at the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., December 5, 1996 Are investors too optimistic? [...]
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today's environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to [...]
Well, they did it. The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points last week and indicated that there is likely more to come. Stock investors liked it, bidding up small cap stocks (S&P 600) by 2.25%, large caps (S&P 500) by 1.4%, and the NASDAQ by 1.5%. Most other markets also did as expected with emerging market [...]
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. The time has [...]
Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn't actually that bad (see below). Not that my - or your - opinion about these things matters all that much to the market. In the short run, all that matters is what the majority believes is the truth. What they believed last week was that [...]
We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP expanded an annualized 4.8% quarter to quarter and 5.8% year-over-year. The annualized quarter-to-quarter change is exactly the average annual change since 1990. Real GDP grew [...]
Last month the Federal Government spent $589B and ran a $314B deficit. To pay for the $314B they didn't have, they said they borrowed $261B from the public and drained their savings account by $73B. That doesn't quite add up but that doesn't surprise anyone. What's $34B between friends? When the Fed's savings account gets low, they have to come [...]
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