Our lens suggests that the very low interest rates that have prevailed for so long may not be “equilibrium” ones, which would be conducive to sustainable and balanced global expansion. Rather than just reflecting the current weakness, low rates may in part have contributed to it by fuelling costly financial booms and busts. The result is too much debt, too [...]
"While most investors were preoccupied with deflation, related to last year's plunge in oil prices, and the seemingly hopelessness of quantitative easing, a stealth recovery in private sector global credit demand was underway. We examined prospects for credit growth..which highlighted some surprising developments relative to the economic pessimism that had caused government bond yields to massively undershoot:" "The monetary transmission mechanism [...]
Are we going to get a repeat of 1937-38? Are rate hikes going to put us into recession? Analysts Earnings revisions have been extreme. Are we going into recession? Where does one invest? 1937-38 Comparisons When one compares 2008-2009 to the great depression, there is a natural progression in the narrative to look for the "double-dip" that was 1937-38. Caution, [...]
Well, it's that time of year again, when all the pundits offer their crystal ball views of the coming new year. I don't usually participate in the prediction game and this year won't be any different. Like everyone else I wonder what the future holds but I know I have no special ability to predict how it might unfold. What [...]
So here we are nearly 6 years removed from the last global financial crisis – surely not the last – and while a lot has been done by global economic policymakers, it seems that not much has really been accomplished. Globally, debt has risen since the crisis despite the cries from some quarters of “austerity”; deleveraging is a myth. Even [...]
I hate to do it, but I'm going to have to write about politics this week. Believe me, it isn't something I relish, but in light of the recent election, it would be dereliction of duty to ignore the elephant and donkey in the room. Let's get this out of the way right up front; Obama got shellacked last Tuesday. [...]
The very character and content for “money” has undergone a radical shift particularly as banking and central banking has attained its latest incarnation. However, even making that statement is somewhat misleading since “money” has been absent from the United States for almost a century. For the most part, nobody seems to have missed it, at least directly, as the economy [...]
Stocks rebounded in spectacular fashion last week, the angst of the last few weeks apparently forgotten as quickly as a central banker can float a trial balloon. First there was the Bullard bounce that moved us off the lows when things were looking their grimmest and then last week we got a rumor about the ECB potentially buying corporate bonds [...]
I've mentioned several times recently that within Alhambra we often have vigorous debates about the economy and markets. I'm a big believer in the power of competition to improve outcomes whether we are talking about the macro economy or the micro debates about portfolio strategy in which we engage. The debates we have internally are a form of intellectual competition, [...]
So be careful what you wish for 'Cause you just might get it And if you get it then you just might not know What to do wit' it, 'cause it might just Come back on you ten-fold Eminem, Careful What You Wish For There was a collective gasp on Wall Street last week as the 3rd revision of 1st [...]
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