Stocks had a rip snorter of a rally last week and a lot of people are pondering the question in the title over this long weekend. The S&P 500 was down 20.9% from intraday high (4818.62, January 4th) to intraday low (3810.32, May 20th). From that intraday low the market has risen 9.1% in just six trading days. That still [...]
Another economic discussion lost to the eventual coronavirus pandemic mania was the 2019 globally synchronized downturn. Not just downturn, outright recession in key parts from around the world, maybe including the US. We’ll simply never know for sure because just when it was happening COVID struck and then governments overrode everything including unfolding history.What anyone can say for sure is [...]
Shipping container rates have been dropping since early March – right around the time when we had just experienced our “collateral days” and then stood by to witness chaotic financial fireworks, inversions, the whole thing. The bane of the logistical supply-side snafu-ing, it has been container redistribution mucking the goods economy up. The recent and sharp decline in container rates, [...]
The stock market hasn’t been moneyed; well, US equities, anyway. What do I mean by “moneyed?” Common perceptions (myth) link the Federal Reserve’s so-called money printing (bank reserves) with share prices. Everyone still thinks there’s a direct monetary injection in this case by the central monetary agency which causes stocks to rise for no good reason.While we don’t have to [...]
The 2-year Treasury right now is the key point, the spot on the yield curve which is influenced mostly by potential alternative rates including those offered by the Federal Reserve. Because of this, the market for the 2s is looking forward at what those alternate rates are likely to be, then pricing yields accordingly. Since the FOMC sets those alternative [...]
We always have to keep in mind that the major economic accounts perform poorly during inflections. Europe in early 2018, for example, was supposed to have been just booming only to have run right into the brick wall that was Euro$ #4. Statistics like Real GDP picked up the downshift, but didn’t quite nail the degree to which the European [...]
You might not know it, but front-end T-bill yields are not the only market spaces which are making a mockery of the Federal Reserve’s “floor.” There are others, including the same money number the same Fed demanded the world (or whatever banks in its jurisdiction it could threaten) ditch LIBOR over. Yes, SOFR.I’ve repeatedly highlighted the 4-week Treasury bill simply [...]
What would “unconscionably excessive” even look, legally speaking? More to the issue, who gets to decide what constitutes “excessive?” The way the phrase has been inserted, it’s as if Congress today seeks to plant its members on some incorporeal higher plane than mere physical substance, too, diving deep into the moral consciousness of the nation and economy in order justify [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun responds to pundits who say recession is inevitable. Plus discussion about changes to Alhambra portfolios.
Inevitable adjective incapable of being avoided or evaded I heard that word a lot last week. There is now a fully formed consensus that the US, and indeed the world, now faces an inevitable recession. It can't be avoided. Central banks will have to keep hiking rates because that's the only way to kill inflation. Yes, the inflation is due [...]
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