How does QE work? That’s actually a trick question given how all the evidence produced in examination of the various programs undertaken across the world under that label uniformly indicates that it doesn’t. On the contrary, the most studied and tested government efforts in history have yielded consistent results up and down the board.It's just that the public has never [...]
Have oil producers shot themselves in the foot, while at the same time stabbing the global economy in the back? It’d be quite a feat if it turns out to be the case, one of those historical oddities that when anyone might honestly look back on it from the future still hung in disbelief. Let’s start by reviewing just the [...]
Seems like ancient history given all that’s happened since, but on October 13 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a planned deluge of cash management bills in the wake of the debt ceiling resolution (the first one). The next day, China’s currency, CNY, broke free from its previous and suspiciously narrow range. Speculating a connection a few days thereafter, I wrote: [...]
One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure. Instead, they seemed to further indicate only what we had proposed upon release of the October estimates: Christmas shopping came a bit early for [...]
For the FOMC, there was no alternative. The CPI’s keep going higher while the unemployment rate continues lower. Those who are Economists and practice Economics’ brand of econometrics, these would be scary times ahead. Inflationary times unless someone puts a stop to them first. Not because of consumer prices today, but because officials are worried consumers are becoming normalized to [...]
In certain quarters, “scientific” quarters, the Chinese haven’t just done a fantastic job managing their own outbreak of COVID-19, the Communist government has produced a pandemic response model for the entire world to envy. After all, according to the WHO’s most recent data (up to December 15, 2021), only 5,697 of the nation’s citizens have died of (with?) corona since [...]
177.1 Eurodollar Warning Confirmed(?) by USA GER JPN & CHN———Ep 177.1 Summary———The Eurodollar futures curve inverted on December 1st - what's happened since? Also, does the American, German and Japanese sovereign bond market corroborate the Eurodollar futures warning? Lastly, does China's lowering of its bank Required Reserve Ratio buttress the E$ warning too? ———Ep 177.1 Topics——— 00:00 INTRO: Updating the [...]
That was fast. Just yesterday I said watch out for when the oil curve flips from backwardation to contango. When it does, that’s not a good sign. Generally speaking, it means something has changed with regard to future expectations, at least one of demand, supply, or also money/liquidity. Contango is a projected imbalance which leaves the global system facing realistic [...]
Basic intuition says this is a no-brainer. Producer prices rise, businesses then pass along these higher input costs to their customers in the form of consumer price “inflation” so as to preserve profits. This is the supply chain hypothesis. Statistically, we’d therefore expect the PPI to lead the CPI.And this was expected for much of Economics’ history, taken for granted [...]
I’m not much for writing, so I’m sure nothing of a song-writer. While that may be the case, what I do know is that two of the missing lines in our Twelve Warnings of Deflation carol would belong to JGB’s and oil. How to fit them in, someone else would have to do so; the number we’d associate for JGB [...]
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