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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 3: Never Getting Inflation Right And The (money) Reasons Behind The Continuous Errors
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 3: Never Getting Inflation Right And The (money) Reasons Behind The Continuous Errors

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 3: Never Getting Inflation Right And The (money) Reasons Behind The Continuous Errors

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-29T20:13:34-04:00October 29th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

136.3 1970s Inflation Then, But Not Now Because... ———Ep 136.3 Summary———A review of transcripts and recordings from the 1970s reveals that monetary and political authorities were unable to identify the source of inflation (international liquidity creation). The authorities didn't understand money in the 1970s, and they still don't. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog [...]

Inflation History Everyone Should Know (but only certain people do)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-29T20:09:48-04:00October 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Supply shock versus inflation. There’s a huge difference, both in terms of what causes each and how they play out. As discussed in great detail here, it is the bond market not central bankers which repeatedly has proved it can sort out this enormously consequential distinction. Bonds know if there is an overflow of money, they need to pay attention [...]

As Predictable Transitory ‘Inflation’, Predictably The Fed’s Taper Is (truly) Something Else

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-29T17:29:44-04:00October 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a very real sense, neither the current rate of PCE Deflator “inflation” nor any more expected to be added by the reported LABOR SHORTAGE!!! are what’s pushing the Federal Reserve toward its next taper error. The Fed doesn’t do money, so that’s not an option for them by which to set policy parameters. All that’s left, then, is “expectations.”Jay [...]

GDP Red Flag

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-28T20:15:57-04:00October 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%. It was only two months ago, mid-August, when the Blue Chip consensus [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 2: The Yield Curve Blasts Cold Water All Over The ‘Red Hot’ Economy
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 2: The Yield Curve Blasts Cold Water All Over The ‘Red Hot’ Economy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 2: The Yield Curve Blasts Cold Water All Over The ‘Red Hot’ Economy

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-28T12:48:57-04:00October 28th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

136.2 Sorry, US Treasury Yield Curve Delivers Bad News———Ep 136.2 Summary———The US Treasury yield curve IS NOT inverted and, therefore, is not signaling a recession warning. But IT IS warning that the Federal Reserve's reasoning to "taper" its quantitative easing program (i.e. economic recovery/health) is unfounded. We saw this in 2018. And 2014. And 2005. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke [...]

Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-27T20:33:22-04:00October 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past week and a half, Treasury has rolled out the CMB’s (cash management bills; like Treasury bills, special issues not otherwise part of the regular debt rotation) one after another: $60 billion 40-day on the 19th; $60 billion 27-day on the 20th; and $40 billion 48-day just yesterday. Treasury also snuck $60 billion of 39-day CMB’s into the [...]

The Enormously Important Reasons To Revisit The Revisions Already Several Times Revisited

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-27T18:34:48-04:00October 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary commitment. I never set out nor imagined that a quarter century after embarking on what I thought would be a career managing portfolios, researching markets, and picking investments, I’d instead have to spend a good amount of my time in the future taking apart how raw economic data is collected, tabulated, and then disseminated. Yet [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 1: Despite Recent Debt Ceiling T-bill Relief This Whole Year Has Been Unambiguous Dollar Woes
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 1: Despite Recent Debt Ceiling T-bill Relief This Whole Year Has Been Unambiguous Dollar Woes

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 1: Despite Recent Debt Ceiling T-bill Relief This Whole Year Has Been Unambiguous Dollar Woes

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-27T12:31:32-04:00October 27th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

136.1 USA Debt Ceiling Reprieve Saves Chinese, and World?———Ep 136.1 Summary———The 'debate' in the US Congress about the debt 'ceiling' prevented the US Treasury Dept. from issuing UST Bills, the ultimate risk-free asset. This put serious stress on the Chinese currency. Now, with the 'debate' tabled till December, Beijing (and the world) are safe... for now.———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke [...]

China’s Central Bank Condition Has Consistently Told You Everything About Global (not) Inflation

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-10-26T20:19:39-04:00October 26th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For several years now, we’ve been harping constantly and consistently about what’s on the PBOC’s balance sheet; or, really, what conspicuously isn’t in very specific line-item numbers. Briefly, simply, if dollars are being extended into China, as has been claimed over the years, particularly the last few, they’re going to show up on the Chinese central bank’s balance sheet. Specifically, [...]

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

By Marcelo Perez|2021-10-26T06:53:54-04:00October 26th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun describes the move in bonds last week, what it means, and how it's different than a similar move in the spring of 2021.

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 3: Never Getting Inflation Right And The (money) Reasons Behind The Continuous Errors

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 2: The Yield Curve Blasts Cold Water All Over The ‘Red Hot’ Economy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 1: Despite Recent Debt Ceiling T-bill Relief This Whole Year Has Been Unambiguous Dollar Woes

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