Currencies

Reopening Inertia, Asian Dollar Style (Still Waiting On The Crash)

By |2020-09-17T20:03:37-04:00September 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday. Six months after Jay Powell conducted what he called a “flood”, with every financial media outlet reporting as fact this stream of digital dollars into every corner of [...]

Mid-September 2020 Hasn’t Disappointed At All

By |2020-09-16T19:26:13-04:00September 16th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first time, it was encouraging to see and hear quite a lot of people talking about the September calendar quirk. That’s progress; a small but noticeable segment of the financial public setting aside the mythical dogma of bank reserves and asking the right questions. However, I fear that having been “disappointed” by this year’s version of it, how [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 26, Part 2: If We Keep Seeing July, What About September and Beyond?

By |2020-09-16T17:30:11-04:00September 16th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr   ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP   Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski   Art: https://davidparkins.com/   Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, a professional gentleman of leisure in no need of unemployment insurance. Artwork by David Parkins.    ———HOW——— 26.2 Capital Market Bottleneck: DEAD AHEAD! [...]

Another Key Economic Stumble In August Pointing Back At July

By |2020-09-16T17:25:15-04:00September 16th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With all these warning signs pointing squarely back to the middle or end of July, it’s pretty clear that “something” changed the momentum maybe even direction of the economy’s reopening rebound. There’s also no question about what one key part of what might have been responsible, thus the quotation marks surrounding the word “something.”The federal government had been handing out [...]

No Hole Puzzle, From Autos An August Stumble

By |2020-09-15T19:31:34-04:00September 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a couple of years there, the oil patch was the heaviest contributor to the idea, at least, that the US economy had been booming. It never really boomed, of course, but on the industrial side investment and production throughout offshore and shale really were boosted and all predicated on the idea that Jay Powell’s (and the unemployment rates’) inflation [...]

China’s Hole Puzzle

By |2020-09-15T18:34:34-04:00September 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One day short of one year ago, on September 16, 2019, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported its updated monthly estimates for the Big 3 accounts. Industrial Production (IP) is a closely-watched indicator as it is relatively decent proxy for the entire goods economy around the world. Retail Sales in the post-Euro$ #2 context give us a sense of [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 26, Part 1: Why Do We Keep Seeing July?

By |2020-09-15T11:05:16-04:00September 14th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP   Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski   Art: https://davidparkins.com/   Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, a professional gentleman of leisure in no need of unemployment insurance. Artwork by David Parkins.    ———HOW——— 26.1 The HUGE Improvement in Unemployment is [...]

Inflation Karma

By |2020-09-11T19:16:28-04:00September 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is no oil in the CPI’s consumer basket, yet oil prices largely determine the rate by which overall consumer prices are increasing (or not). WTI sets the baseline which then becomes the price of motor fuel (gasoline) becoming the energy segment. As energy goes, so do headline CPI measurements. And that’s a huge problem…if you are Jay Powell. We’ve [...]

The Contingent Hole In China’s Brazil Dollar Strategy

By |2020-09-11T17:35:20-04:00September 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Brazil strategy isn’t, of course, truly Brazilian. Like the Spanish flu which became famous for where it was first noticed and reported rather than where it originated, this monetary policy was thought up elsewhere and Banco do Brasil is merely the central bank which decided it was worth sharing.What is this Brazil (my term, by the way) policy? “Contingent [...]

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