Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses whether the economy is in early or late cycle, what last week’s employment numbers really mean, and two concerning economic indicators.
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses whether the economy is in early or late cycle, what last week’s employment numbers really mean, and two concerning economic indicators.
The employment report released last Friday was better than expected but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. Both found things in the report to support their preconceived notions about the state of the economy. I do think the bulls had the better case on this particular report but there have been plenty of others recently [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the need for a broader perspective on the market to get a better sense of what's really going on.
Perspective: per·spec·tive | \ pər-ˈspek-tiv b: the capacity to view things in their true relations or relative importance Merriam-Webster Perspective is something that comes with age I think. Certainly, as I've gotten older, my perspective on things has changed considerably. As we age, we tend to see things from a longer-term view. Things that seemed so important at the time, years ago, turned out [...]
It was the laziest of arguments, saturated with desperation, too, the equivalent of waving around sophistry to answer for the painfully contradictory truth. Now that feces and fans are getting further acquainted, we have the necessary perspective to settle the matter once and for all. The matter refuses to be settled, however; I mean, it’s 2022 and we’re still arguing [...]
Consumer confidence in Germany never really picked up all that much last year. Conflating CPIs with economic condition, this divergence proved too big of a mystery. When the German GfK, for example, perked up only a tiny bit around September and October 2021, the color of consumer prices clouded judgement and interpretation of what had always been a damning situation.From [...]
The Federal Reserve’s various branches don’t just do manufacturing surveys anymore. This is a modern economy, after all, meaning industry isn’t the same top dog as what it used to be. While still important, and still able to tear down even the global-iest synchronized of growth-y, services are the big macro enchilada. Reflecting this fact, there are now regional Fed [...]
Well, that was a mess. The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Survey was at first released before being taken back. Initially reported as a plunge in the headline number, it was quickly scrapped once the statisticians remembered they had just discontinued their average workweek component – but had kept a zero in its place when tallying the overall PMI.With it, the PMI [...]
It’s not just the flood of never-ending inventory. That’s a huge and growing problem, sure, as the chickens of last year’s short-termism overordering finally come home to their retailer roost. Being stuck with too many goods isn’t necessarily fatal to the global and domestic manufacturing sectors.The scale of the burden is one key worry, though equally so is demand. When [...]
Ben Bernanke once admitted how the job of the post-truth “central banker” is to try to convince the market to do your work for you. What he didn’t say was that this was the only prayer officials had for any success. Because if the market ever decided that talk wasn’t enough, only real money in hand would do, everyone’d be [...]
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