Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun reacts to last week's inversion of the yield curve and what investors should do now.
Weekly Market Pulse: What Now?
The yield curve inverted last week. Well, the part everyone watches, the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread, inverted, closing the week a solid 7 basis points in the negative. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is not the yield curve though. The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 [...]
The Short, Sweet Income Case For Ugly Inversion(s), Too
A nod to just how backward and upside down the world is now. The economic data everyone is made to pay attention to, payrolls, that one is, in my view, irrelevant. As is the consumer price estimates from earlier this week, the PCE Deflator. That’s another one which receives vast amounts of interest even though it is already old news.Yet, [...]
A(nother) Waste of Our Time
It’s been a while, but the BLS finally got around to releasing a near-perfect payroll report. These had been incredibly common even during prior downturns and near recessions, which should only raise questions about them. Among any immediate concerns, how relevant can these data points be?In our current day, like the consumer price data, they’re already old news. That’s not [...]
Two Major Economies, One Key Difference In Timing
A tale of two economies? At first, it might seem that way. However, this isn’t the first time apparent divergences have arisen. On the contrary, “decoupling” is a recurrent theme even though, in the end, it never happens. Of the major data released today, one set from the United States, the other in China. The former seemingly justifying the Federal [...]
GDP (and GDI) Lays Out The Perfect Supply Shock Case, And Its Downside
Though the fourth quarter US real GDP headline rate was left practically unchanged, there was some notable shuffling of its underlying details. In addition, we now have the full GDI estimates to work with, including the BEA’s figure for something called Net Operating Surplus, therefore some better (hopefully) understanding of the real story (in my view) behind why it’s not [...]
JOLTS Three (Data) Body Problem
Though labor data, like the market it measures, is a lagging macro indicator, there’s some use in closely tracking any changes to it. Financial markets may send out profound warning signals, as they are now, about the future which aren’t (yet) showing up in the employment statistics, still those estimates might provide at least some background behind in this case [...]
Volcker’s Petrodollar Bigfoot; Or Why Curves Today Are So Against The Fed And Its Rate Hikes
One of the biggest intellectual crimes of the Volcker Myth is how it quashed what likely would have been fruitful (in my opinion) further examination into the monetary designs of the actual global reserve system. People today still whisper about some secret oil-soaked deal which saw UST’s end up in the hands of Arabia’s Saudis, as if this was something [...]
We Can Only Hope For Another (bond) Massacre
To begin with, the economy today is absolutely nothing like it had been almost thirty years ago. That fact in and of itself should end the discussion right here. However, comparisons will be made and it does no harm to review them.I’m talking about 1994, or, more specifically, the eleven months between late February 1994 and early February 1995. Fearing [...]
Inversions And Inventory, The Major Products of October
What happened in October 2021? Another year’s Halloween, sure, some beerfest gluttony around the world. For all the happy revelries in that month the financial markets took a decidedly ominous turn. It hadn’t exactly been all rainbows and unicorns in them before then, yet they were at least stable to slightly optimistic about the future for 2022 or beyond.The list [...]
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