The labor theory of inflation, the one the FOMC will use to justify rate hikes in 2022 (as far as they might go), isn’t just wages and competition for the presumed scarce marginal worker. While a tight labor market might drive up the marginal cost for labor inputs, in order for companies to then pass those higher costs back to [...]
At issue is what she or they mean when the use the qualifier “worse.” It may be that how policymakers are thinking about it ends up being very different from reality or bond market discounting. No surprise, these two camps have frequently been at odds and for a very long time; Alan Greenspan’s “conundrum” a full seventeen years ago this [...]
Now it’s the Russian’s fault. Belligerence surrounding Donbas and Ukraine, raw materials and energy supplies to Europe threatened by Putin’s coiled bear. Why wouldn’t markets grow worried?There’s always a reason why we shouldn’t take these things seriously, or quickly dismiss them out of hand as the temporary product of whichever political fear-of-the-day. This isn’t to write that these things aren’t [...]
The world seemed to have everything going for it, for once, everything coming up favorable for the first time seemingly in forever. There were vaccines, financial government interventions worldwide just recklessly chucking money at anyone with a pulse, an end to the pandemic even normalcy right in front of us. What could possibly have messed this up?It was around 11:15 [...]
Nobody, and I mean nobody, does premature celebrations like central bankers. When it comes to their non-money monetary policies and the inflation they seek to create from them, time and again officials in every jurisdiction spike the ball at least 30 yards before they reach the endzone. Whenever one or another consumer price measure ticks up, or accelerates dramatically as [...]
As I write this, the S&P 500 futures are down over 80 points, apparently in response to some rather harsh comments from Vladimir Putin concerning Ukraine. Russia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that border Russia, and is apparently deploying troops in these regions. This is seen by the west as a precursor [...]
It was the clash of all clashes, the textbook up against practice in a real world falling apart. Theory’s chance to save the day and prove itself, what should’ve been the legend’s finest hour. Time to put up, or... On the one side, there was the “money” we’re all told is easily created, and on the other what may have [...]
Balance sheet capacity as an intangible (and deeply misunderstood) monetary property is the biggest motivating factor behind changes in or to the offshore, shadow ledger-money reserve system. The eurodollar. Since it is a distributed ledger shared amongst, and kept by, the big-bank global banking cabal, its members’ ability to expand their own individual balance sheets contributes to the overall increase [...]
Today, Treasury auctioned its usual weekly allowance of 4- and 8-week Treasury bills. For the former, this was the first conducted given a maturity which goes past the March 2022 FOMC meeting; the initial all-but-guaranteed rate hike. Last week’s 4-week bill expires right on the first day of that meeting, so no rate hike had been considered auctioning off that [...]
Most Americans understandably have tunnel vision when it comes to the American CPI and what it might portend for their personal circumstances. Gasoline prices and those for anyone trying to buy a car or now rent some kind of shelter, the threat is immediate. From this palpable sense, the word “transitory” today might just seem offensive.Yet, it may prove itself [...]
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