Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the impact of the Ukraine/Russia situation on oil, recession, European stock markets, and Alhambra portfolios.
Weekly Market Pulse: Oil Shock
Crude oil prices rose over 25% last week and as I sit down to write this evening, the overnight futures are up another 8% to around $125. Almost every other commodity on the planet rose in prices last week too, as did the dollar. Those two factors - rising dollar and rising commodity prices - mean the likelihood of recession [...]
Houston, We Have An Oil (and inventory) Problem
If only, like in the aftermath of the Apollo 13 explosion, we could just radio Houston to get started in figuring out just the way out of our fix. Mission Control would certainly buzz all the right people with the right stuff, summoning the best engineers and scientists from their quiet divans to the frenzied and dangerous work ahead. Sadly, [...]
For The Fed, None Of These Details Will Matter
Most people have the impression that these various payroll and employment reports just go into the raw data and count up the number of payrolls and how many Americans are employed. Perhaps the BLS taps the IRS database as fellow feds, or ADP as a private company in the same data business of employment just tallies how many payrolls it [...]
The Rate Hikers Are Not Serious People
Though I say, write, and communicate all the time how the Federal Reserve is not a central bank because it doesn’t do money and that therefore its non-money monetary policies are little more than pop psychology conveyed via an increasingly stale puppet show, you might be surprised to learn that none other than Janet Yellen has publicly agreed with my [...]
BLS: We’ll Smooth The Payroll Data; ADP: Hold My Beer
Remember the summer slowdown? Not last year’s, the first one. Back around July and August 2020 when what was supposed to have been a V-shaped recovery fell way off that trend. Instead, blamed on something with COVID, the US (and global economy) limped its way toward the end of that year just in time for its sugar-rush restart via helicopter.Twenty-twenty’s [...]
The Dirty Demon-etizing End Of A Reserve Era
Late in March 2020, the Bank of Russia (BoR) abruptly announced it would no longer purchase gold. For years, Russia’s monetary authorities had been the metal’s biggest buyer, not just among official institutions but anywhere in the world. In fact, the country had been steadily accumulating bullion ever since October 2006; an effort that accelerated, not coincidentally, in April 2014 [...]
Last Year Wasn’t The Year of Inflation, It Consistently Set Up This Year For Inflationary Fail
The most common explanation for UST repo fails is that short sellers become an imbalance in the market for Treasuries. Convinced (isn’t everyone?) interest rates have nowhere to go but up and these instruments are doomed, therefore ripe to profit from the destruction, short selling sharks supposedly swoop in. Since they’ve borrowed UST’s they don’t own, the herd is susceptible [...]
Briefing Even More Inventory
Retail sales stumbled in December, contributing some to the explosion in inventory across the US supply chain – but not all. Inventories were going to spike even if sales had been better. In fact, retail inventories rose at such a record pace beyond anything seen before, had sales been far improved the monthly increase in inventories still would’ve unlike anything [...]
SWIFT Isn’t The ‘Nuclear Option’ For Russia, Because The World Is Eurodollar Not Dollar
As everyone “knows”, the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency which can only leave the US government in control of it. Participation is both required and at the pleasure of American authorities. If you don’t accept their terms, you risk the death penalty: exile from the privilege of the US dollar’s essential business.From what little most people know about [...]
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