Currencies

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 1: How Bond Yields Astutely, Accurately Sort Out Past ‘Inflation’ Panics
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 1: How Bond Yields Astutely, Accurately Sort Out Past ‘Inflation’ Panics

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 1: How Bond Yields Astutely, Accurately Sort Out Past ‘Inflation’ Panics

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-10T20:05:10-05:00November 10th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

150.1 Huge 1950s CPI-Surge was Transitory, Not Inflation ———Ep 150.1 Summary———An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond market knew it and didn't overreact. And what about the Federal Reserve? They overreacted. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest [...]

What Does The Rest of the Market Think About The ‘Epic’ CPI (TIPS, breakevens, even consumers themselves)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-10T19:57:58-05:00November 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We already covered the yield curve’s reaction given today’s whopping consumer price levels. How about strictly inflation expectations in the market? TIPS, breakevens and such.Unsurprisingly, shorter-term breakevens (5s) jumped 12 bps to a new high of 308 bps (boosted considerably following the auction on October 21st). Pulling up the rest of the inflation “curve”, the 10-year breakeven added a “mere” [...]

How Can A CPI Now Above Six Price Like This?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-10T17:51:53-05:00November 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS said today its Consumer Price Index rose by 6.2% in October 2021 when compared to October 2020. This was the largest annual increase since Alan Greenspan was giving up on M2 three decades ago. Perhaps most concerning, after having taken a few months “off” prices re-accelerated last month reigniting fears of a 70s-style monetary runaway.But, as we saw [...]

Demand, Supply, and Landmines, Oh my

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-09T19:40:40-05:00November 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some call it the accordion effect while others refer to it in terms of a bullwhip. Whatever the terminology, the supply chain mess has created a set of perverse incentives leading to a positive feedback loop: the greater the mess, the longer the times for delivery, the more product gets ordered if in only to increase the chance something, anything [...]

Landmine Review: The Big One

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-10T10:54:42-05:00November 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Representatives in Congress from both parties were understandably apoplectic. Amidst the world’s worst monetary chaos since the Great Collapse after October 1929, legislators had been told by everyone from central bankers to all the right Economists how laws needed to passed right away, no delay, which would give the Bush Administration authority to buy up the “toxic waste” each had [...]

Landmine Lurking, Gotta Make Tantrum Happen Before It’s Too Late (again)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-08T19:59:28-05:00November 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Have hedge funds acted rashly, perhaps stupidly? There is a segment of the population media that very much wants people to think so. According to recent data, fund speculators have gone long short-term US Treasuries, particularly the 2-year (as well as eurodollar futures), since early October. And not just long the short end, the most in almost seven years!What idiots, [...]

Global Trade and Global Prices, China and Germany’s ‘Growth Scare’

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-08T18:41:55-05:00November 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While most people were still digesting the headline US BLS report and its unemployment rate’s latest dip on Friday, over in Germany a few hours before the American release the other country’s economic bean counters at deStatis had already published some puzzling, seemingly inconsistent data. Measuring total industrial output, Industrial Production, the Germans said theirs had declined by a substantial [...]

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

By Marcelo Perez|2021-11-08T12:36:36-05:00November 8th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun reviews good and not-so-good economic reports from last week, new highs in the markets, and the growing trend of speculation with stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Weekly Market Pulse: Divergence
Weekly Market Pulse: Divergence

Weekly Market Pulse: Divergence

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2021-11-08T08:16:35-05:00November 8th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Almost all the economic data released last week was better than expected. ISM manufacturing PMI, Redbook retail sales, ISM non-manufacturing PMI (an all-time high), factory orders (headline and ex-transportation), ADP employment, jobless claims (new post-COVID low), non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, manufacturing employment, all better than expected. There were some disappointing reports: construction spending was down 0.5%, the trade deficit [...]

Looking Out For Landmines, *That* Is The Tantrum
Looking Out For Landmines, *That* Is The Tantrum

Looking Out For Landmines, That Is The Tantrum

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-05T20:00:19-04:00November 5th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Jay Powell and his group have been talking taper for months. The build up has been excruciating to some, if only because this central banker adjustment is supposed to mean something. Something especially big specially to bonds who just can’t thrive, everyone says, without the “monetization” of QE. With first less and then no Fed, who will buy them? Too [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 1: How Bond Yields Astutely, Accurately Sort Out Past ‘Inflation’ Panics

Weekly Market Pulse: Divergence

Looking Out For Landmines, That Is The Tantrum

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