While most people were still digesting the headline US BLS report and its unemployment rate’s latest dip on Friday, over in Germany a few hours before the American release the other country’s economic bean counters at deStatis had already published some puzzling, seemingly inconsistent data. Measuring total industrial output, Industrial Production, the Germans said theirs had declined by a substantial [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun reviews good and not-so-good economic reports from last week, new highs in the markets, and the growing trend of speculation with stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Almost all the economic data released last week was better than expected. ISM manufacturing PMI, Redbook retail sales, ISM non-manufacturing PMI (an all-time high), factory orders (headline and ex-transportation), ADP employment, jobless claims (new post-COVID low), non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, manufacturing employment, all better than expected. There were some disappointing reports: construction spending was down 0.5%, the trade deficit [...]
Jay Powell and his group have been talking taper for months. The build up has been excruciating to some, if only because this central banker adjustment is supposed to mean something. Something especially big specially to bonds who just can’t thrive, everyone says, without the “monetization” of QE. With first less and then no Fed, who will buy them? Too [...]
It is one of the most important results to look for, a payroll cue which opens up the question to much bigger issues. A recession or any serious downturn registers with employers first when they feel the need to cut back on labor. As the biggest input cost and cash flow commitment, nothing more than plain common sense.Once past some [...]
It was said to be the absolutely perfect scenario (see: below). The vaccines put an end to the pandemic within sight, combined with intractable problems getting any iron out of the ground and then shipped somewhere useful, demand for the commodity was expected to be robust and better while at the same time supply would remain constricted. With American consumers [...]
Why always round numbers? Monetary policy targets in the post-Volcker era always change on even terms. Alan Greenspan had his quarter-point fed funds moves. Ben Bernanke faced with crisis would auction $25 billion via TAF. QE’s are done in even numbers, either total purchases or their monthly pace.This is a messy and dynamic environment, in which the economy operates out [...]
Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed. In December 2020, millions of Americans [...]
Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup? You can’t blame COVID at the tail end for a woeful string which actually dates [...]
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though.Of the first, it’s been a real tsunami [...]
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