Markets

Go Early, Go Fast? Go Deflation

By |2021-08-03T18:16:01-04:00August 3rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Go early and go fast. This was the message FOMC Governor Christopher Waller wanted to send to the CNBC audience watching his interview yesterday on that channel. He was referring to the possible taper of QE6. In Waller’s view, if the US economy lives up to its current hype in the form of two more blowout jobs numbers, those would [...]

Another Big ‘Ide’ To Add To Deflation’s March

By |2021-08-02T19:47:57-04:00August 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s another foreign angle to the grave misconceptions about what overseas financial entities are doing, and are made to do, with specifically US Treasury assets (and overall US$ assets more broadly). The American public, anyway, has wrongly been led to believe that those outside the US must hate the US and its dollar; at least its recklessly spendthrift government. None [...]

Deflation From the Beginning: The Soothsayer (bonds) Said Beward The Ides of March

By |2021-08-02T17:38:45-04:00August 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s been a little too on-the-nose. Claiming only a minimum level of dramatic license here, what we have continuing toward an uneasy future is a case of life imitating art (which imitated real life). We’ve all heard of Shakespeare’s famed soothsayer cautioning the arrogant Roman Emperor Caesar to watch his back on March 15. How about the 18th?Beware the Ides [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Trading Places

By |2021-08-02T07:37:59-04:00August 1st, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

They're out there panicking right now. I can feel it. They're out there. They're panicking. Look at them. - Eddie Murphy as Billy Ray Valentine in Trading Places I thought of that scene the other day when a good friend in the investment business told me that investors today are panicking into the market rather than out as they were [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 92: Frontline’s ‘Power of The Fed’ Would’ve Been Powerful Criticism Had It Not Blindly Swallowed ‘Easy Money’

By |2021-07-30T19:29:18-04:00July 30th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

92.0: What FRONTLINE got SO wrong about the Fed LIVE!———Ep 92.0 Summary———FRONTLINE critiques the Fed for showering #BigBanks, #BigBusiness and #WallStreet with easy money, which reached neither the real #economy nor the vast majority of Americans. Yes to the latter, but no-no-no-no to the former. We did a 95-minute review of this episode and explain why the Fed is not [...]

Diverging Inflation Numbers, For How Much Longer?

By |2021-07-30T19:23:00-04:00July 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany’s flash July 2021 inflation estimate came in hot yesterday, boosted mostly by comparisons to July 2020’s VAT-free situation. That country’s CPI is a robust sounding 3.8% year-over-year this month, though only 3.1% in its flash HICP terms. Despite Deutschland’s oversized contribution and influence, Eurostat reports today how for Europe as a whole there was a whole lot of little [...]

Inflation Estimates (PCE) *Totally* Overshadowed By Benchmark Income Revisions, And The (Deflationary) Implications of Them

By |2021-07-30T17:37:30-04:00July 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Of course inflation numbers, the PCE Deflators for June 2021, but first in the same report as those the BEA also released its various data on income and spending. In the former category, income, we’ll find a big reason why this deviation for consumer prices most likely ends up as temporary. And before we can get to that, big benchmark [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 91: Almost Perfect Example of Collateral Scramble

By |2021-07-30T10:32:09-04:00July 30th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

91: Repo Market Collateral Rumble Moving the Needle———Ep 91.0 Summary———Early-morning action in the repo market shows a musical chairs-like collateral scramble; it has the Fed's attention. But the Fed is blasé about it (i.e. 'too much cash'). Yet these collateral scrambles resemble what we saw in March 2020. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 91.0 Topics——— 01:41 [...]

Business Or Inflation Cycle?

By |2021-07-29T20:26:41-04:00July 29th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Was the GDP report good or bad? Six percent sure sounds terrific, given it wasn’t all that long ago two and a half or three was perceived a home run. As with any of these things, the ultimate judgement depends on more than single numbers because everything is relative. The fact is the BEA calculated a headline quarterly change which [...]

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