Like so many other monetary things, the name itself is misleading though it’s not immediately clear why. The Asian Financial Crisis (or Asian flu, as many called it back in the day) began in Thailand, became a financial crisis, and spread throughout, well, Asia. How else would anyone label it?This name, however, radiates an impression that this was a lot [...]
89.2 China Warns World of (Next?) Dollar Disorder———Ep 89.2 Summary———The People's Bank of China lowers its bank Required Reserve Ratio to get money into a slowing economy. A lowered RRR means that there aren't enough (euro)dollars flowing into China. Why? Because there aren't enough (euro)dollars in the world. A lower RRR is a warning for the whole world. ———See It——— [...]
Global factors, meaning that the wave of significantly higher deflationary potential (therefore, diminishing inflationary chances which were never good to begin with) in global bond yields the past five months have seemingly focused on troubles brewing outside the US. Overseas turmoil, it was called back in 2015, leaving by default a picture of relative American strength and harmony.The rest of [...]
Conventional wisdom has said for a long time that a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining output. Where this idea came from, who knows. It’s a shorthand that was put together over time derived from the folks at the NBER. This latter group has claimed the responsibility for being the “official” arbiter of every recession, having become the go-to [...]
89.1 Jay Powell Sees Safe-Asset Demand Surge; Why?———Ep 89.1 Summary———Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is step one along a well-trod path towards a malfunctioning economy. Here's what happens next. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear [...]
It’s not necessarily a discrepancy so much as maybe looking at the same thing from a different point of view. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reports on, among other things, the widest definition of foreign assets being under its whole national umbrella. Yet, the agency publishes balances denominated not in CNY, either US$’s or SDR’s (hey, they can [...]
I had intended to lay off the T-bills today, just to write about something else, anything else, but, as often occurs, circumstances intervened. We’ve been subjecting you to seemingly unrelenting focus on Treasury bills’ various follies this year. The reason is quite simple, and trading early in the morning today a very good example both of “what” and “why.”FRBNY last [...]
Back on February 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell stopped by (in a virtual, Zoom sense) the Senate Banking Committee to testify as required by law. In the Q&A portion, he was asked the following by Montana’s Senator Steve Daines: SENATOR DAINES. I just was looking at the T bill chart and noticing since the 1st of February, the one [...]
Central bankers nearly everywhere have succumbed to recovery fever. This has been a common occurrence among their cohort ever since the earliest days of the crisis; the first one. Many of them, or their predecessors, since this standard of fantasyland has gone on for so long, had caught the malady as early as 2007 and 2008 when the world was [...]
Is there anyone left out there who doesn't know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10-year TIPS yields have fallen by the same amount and now reside below -1% again. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low, and are [...]
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