Markets

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 7: The Anti-Weimar

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-11T12:52:39-04:00May 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google-cast: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/S1qjswZdisM Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ [Emil's Summary] The monetary system is missing of money. Expectation of its return is no longer enough; actual recreation of modern money is needed. That job belongs to the private sector, the banks. It was true of the 1930s, and true of present day.Quantitative easing, [...]

What’s On Second, I Don’t Know Left Third

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-08T19:19:03-04:00May 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it really that simple? The central bank hands out “free” money or “supports” markets with purchases, so that’s all there is to it. Once Jay Powell or Christine Lagarde moves in with the big bazookas, who’s not going to climb on board the money train as it rockets out of the inflation station?If only Weimar was that easy. Easy [...]

Serious Bending Of The “V”

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-08T16:29:46-04:00May 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it already priced in? Depends, of course, on who you ask and more importantly which market is carrying out the presumed discounting. Stocks surged on the idea that though this is epic in its misery we’re already getting past the worst. Short run disruption, a big one, but nothing more. It’s almost preprogrammed at this point: the data for [...]

Same Trade, Different World

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-07T19:34:44-04:00May 7th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was another one of those good news, bad news data days in China. Unfortunately, the good news just doesn’t make much sense. That was Chinese exports which, according to the country’s General Administration of Customs, increased by 4.5% year-over-year in April 2020. Given the state of the world last month, exports were expected to drop by 12 to 14% [...]

Everyone Knows The Gov’t Wants A ‘Controlled’ Weimar

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-06T19:37:25-04:00May 6th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are two parts behind the inflation mongering. The first, noted yesterday, is the Fed’s balance sheet, particularly its supposedly monetary remainder called bank reserves. The central bank is busy doing something, a whole bunch of something, therefore how can it possibly turn out to be anything other than inflationary?The answer: the Federal Reserve is not a central bank, not [...]

We All Know Who’s On First, But What’s On Second?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-06T16:37:30-04:00May 6th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t entirely unexpected, though when it was announced it was still quite a lot to take in. On September 1, 2005, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the nation’s personal savings rate had turned negative during the month of July. The press release announcing the number, in trying to explain the result was reduced instead to a [...]

Weimar Thirties Didn’t Happen Because It’s What You Don’t See

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-05T20:33:28-04:00May 5th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was an absolutely mad scramble. Banking difficulties in the Fed’s sixth district, the Atlanta branch, had sparked an irresistible wave of panic which spread throughout the Eastern seaboard. By December 1930, it had reached the streets of New York City – the world’s monetary capital. On December 11, customer withdrawals had left the Bank of the United States with [...]

Synchronized, Like A Cheap Imported Suit

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-05T16:16:03-04:00May 5th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trading partners like Mexico didn’t have a labor participation problem by which to hide the economic downturn last year. The whole idea of “decoupling” in the 2018 sense of the word was how the US economy, by virtue of its 50-year low unemployment rate, couldn’t possibly be as weak as it increasingly appeared overseas. The US was good, they kept [...]

Weimar Ben Didn’t Happen, So Now Weimar Jay?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-04T17:26:01-04:00May 4th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Anna Jacobson Schwartz often gets buried under the mountains of study Milton Friedman conducted on his own. Contrary to what some, perhaps many, might think, Friedman didn’t write A Monetary History by himself. Anna Schwartz was his co-author for what would become one of the most important volumes of economic scholarship of the entire 20th century.Pretty much every central bank [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 6: Shocking (to some) Fragility

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-05-04T15:30:05-04:00May 4th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google-cast: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Alhambra-tube: below SUMMARY Hubris. It will get us to the stars but seduce us into believing we belong there. Today, monetary authorities suffer it, believing they can manage the nonlinearity, emergence, spontaneous order, adaptation and feedback loops of the unraveling. DESCRIPTION In 1929 a plague struck Florida resulting in an overwhelming government response. [...]

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