A slight zig in the right direction versus September for both reports. ADP reported an addition of 113,000 jobs in October up from 89,000 in September. Even better, this was a steady increase throughout the month and not an isolated week. For the Jolts report, this number is a month stale. But it's a good one to look at because [...]
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett, October 16, 2008, Buy American. I Am. , New York Times That was a month after the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers, in the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. At the beginning of the article he admits that [...]
If we look at inflation on a year over year basis, the data series is smooth and it is coming down. The rate of decent has slowed, but that's ok, the world doesn't work in perfectly smooth arcs and waves. The month over month annualized rate is a shorter term (very volatile) rate. As such, it will lead when there [...]
Here's a good visual of the K-shaped recovery from the pandemic. This is top the 1/3 in income versus the bottom 1/3 (terciles). The K would likely get even more distinct if we looked at quartiles, quintiles and deciles. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the [...]
Sales firmed to an annual rate 16.23 million units in September after dropping below 16 million in August. This is about 7% higher than the historic average. Buyers delayed purchases because of price spikes and lack of inventory. The more interesting and important data are the production and inventory numbers. Production continues to rise as companies try to re-build inventory. [...]
GDP came in hotter than expected. Sequentially, Real GDP grew 4.9%. To say it another way, the annualized growth rate of the quarter over quarter change in GDP, or (Q32023/Q22023)^4. The reason to look at it on a QoQ annualized basis is that you would see a problem in the economy sooner than the YoY numbers. The yoy annual rate [...]
Here is a brief summary of what is of concern to domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others. We might call these "known risks." Persistent inflation and monetary tightening Persistent or reaccelerating inflationary pressures Resilient economic outlook leading to further monetary policy tightening Volatile market conditions Entrenched expectations of higher inflation leading to higher realized inflation leading to [...]
Well, I finally got it. I've been fighting COVID for the last week and while most of my symptoms have improved, I am not 100% yet. My goal from the beginning of COVID was to avoid it, if at all possible, until it became endemic and less lethal. It seemed logical to me, a layman, that it would follow this [...]
A slight improvement in current conditions for manufacturing in the region, but still negative. Feelings about New Orders improved and jumped into positive territory. Similar to the New York release, trending in the right direction. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy [...]
Industrial production broadly appears to have 0% growth since March and to be treading water. But, the general direction is better than it looks from that view. Since the 4th quarter of 2022 was so bad, if we continue this trajectory, the annual growth will start to show up. What's not quite as inspiring is that the growth is mostly [...]
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