In April 2008, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe was miffed. The country’s central bank governor, Dr. Gideon Gono, produced its first quarter monetary policy statement by reminding anyone who might read it that his actions were being duplicated the world over. Apparently still smarting over criticism by his central bank peers, Dr. Gono, an honorary degree, was more disturbed by [...]
Argentina’s election is more complicated than simple economics, but for the first time in a very long time there will be no Peronist in office. It may have been billed as a contest between the candidate of the market and that of the state, but either would have found the same bottom opening up on the nation. As so many [...]
Monetarism, at its core, is relatively quite simple. It would have to be, standing upon ground of nothing much more than generic concepts for almost every important economic factor. But all of it can be distilled into the idea of money supply; given “enough”, the economy will thrive. That view includes some of the worst of conditions so long as [...]
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then held support at the 50-day moving average (at least for now) during this remarkable rebound from its crushing meltdown earlier this year. We may once again test resistance at the previous breakdown level (2100) this coming week. The S&P 500 is up 3.45% for the year. The S&P [...]
I don't often write about global geopolitics because I think, in general, investors spend too much time worrying about things they can't control or aren't going to happen or wouldn't matter much if they did. The best example is the Middle East which has been a mess my entire life and long before it for that matter. Changing your investments [...]
As depicted by Macro Research Board, the current cycle has been "abnormal." The depth of the downturn in 2008 led to deleveraging and risk aversion in the financial and household sectors. This, coupled with the sheer weight of aggregate debt, has caused "a prolonged risk on/off environment." This has "undermined investor confidence," and "slowed the transition between the policy-induced rally and growth-driven upleg" [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The economic data continues to come in largely less than expected with the manufacturing/industrial parts of the economy faring worst. In what may be a developing trend, housing starts were less than expected and with last home sales reports makes for a short string of weaker reports. Generally, real estate has been trending [...]
Top News Headlines Paris terrorists dispatched; hostage crisis in Mali ends with 27 dead. Stocks have a big week, up over 3%. Fed minutes are dovishly hawk-like. United Health says losing millions on Obamacare, may pull out of exchanges next year. Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard released from US prison. Square prices IPO at half off last private funding round giving [...]
By all meaningful measures, credit markets today aren’t any different than they were after the first “dollar” wave crested and subsided. Despite all that has transpired all over the place in 2015, this resiliency is worrisome. No matter how much commentary wishes it to be a comforting tool of monetary policy adjusting into economic salvation, the fact that these indications [...]
The problem with Brazil is that its central bank has done everything the monetary textbook requires of it. Setting aside that Banco itself is a literal mishmash of public and private interests (what central bank isn’t?), the freefall in the Brazilian economy of late is simply puzzling to the mainstream. Unlike the US or Europe, at least the descent is [...]
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