In Hamlet, Act 1, Scene III, Shakespeare warns, in his own poetic fashion and style, about what should happen when always or nearly so looking for only the easy way forward: I shall the effect of this good lesson keep, As watchman to my heart. But, good my brother, Do not, as some ungracious pastors do, Show me the steep [...]
Stocks rallied again last week, up a bit less than 1% as weak economic data pushed out - again - expectations for the first Fed rate hike to March of next year. I suspect this won't be the last week that sees that time line extended although whether that translates to higher stock prices is more questionable. In looking through [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. HY credit spreads continued to widen on the month indicating continuing stress in that market. Spreads did not widen sufficiently to generate an additional sell signal. Valuations are still near recent [...]
Based on their in depth research and access to global economic data, our Strategic Macroeconomic Research Partner recommends the following portfolio positioning. Asset Allocation Regional Exposures Sector Exposures Fixed Income Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global [...]
Top News Headlines Hillary debates aging hippie Sanders and some other guy. Dell to buy EMC in biggest tech deal ever, assuming bond market is agreeable. Walmart earnings take a dive, stock follows. Gold turns positive for the year. Economic News China trade figures disappoint. US PPI and CPI both negative on the month. Inflation? What inflation? Retail sales up [...]
Goldman Sachs just reported an extremely rough quarter, and not just for a bank that has earned a reputation as being on the “right” side of trading. The bank’s (and it is a bank, now) annualized return on equity put it next to BofAML and below Citigroup, of all indignities. The reason, as always, is FICC. Reported revenue there was [...]
Industrial production fell again in September, seasonally-adjusted month-over-month, for the eighth time out of nine months so far this year. Year-over-year IP was barely positive, at just +0.4%. The last time output growth was so stagnant (on the way down) was March 2008! It has become exceedingly difficult to assign this trend some temporary designation or as if it was [...]
There probably should be a cottage industry trying to figure out what Albert Einstein actually said or wrote quite against what is typically attributed to him (or Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill and many others). One such nugget purported from his genius was that compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. That is how the sentiment seems to [...]
This could actually fit well within my last post, but it seemed distinctive enough to merit individual attention. Not really any commentary necessary from my part (this is for India,the world's seventh largest economy by GDP, if you don’t want to click on the link): Exports declined 24.3% from a year earlier to $21.84 billion, according to data released by [...]
In a world wrapped in an often impenetrable morass of complexity and numbing esoteric deceitfulness, sometimes it is worthwhile to marvel in fleeting passes of simplicity. We have been looking for an isolated glimpse or almost control group synthesis of the Asian “dollar.” I suggested a few weeks back that China’s weeklong national holiday might provide such an opportunity, with [...]
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