AI this and AI that. It seems AI is dominating a huge part of our national discussion. Part of society believes AI will elevate us to unfettered heights never before known in the history of mankind. The other side believes AI will create masses of people who can’t think for themselves and will damage society beyond repair. No matter which [...]
Every time we hear, watch, or read the news, we are reminded that liberty is a rare commodity in this world. - Ronald Reagan It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God such men lived. - George S. Patton In the End, we will remember not the words of our [...]
Should investors be worried about the impending breach of the US debt ceiling? A default would be catastrophic according to numerous news articles I've read recently. Well, to be honest, I didn't read past the first few paragraphs of most of those articles because if you've read one of them, you've read them all. Obviously, a default would be bad [...]
What is long term? That's a question with many answers depending on your point of view. Some people might think a year is long term. I had a client tell me once that he was so old he didn't buy green bananas because he might not be around to eat them. Some might say 3 years is long term but [...]
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. -Warren Buffett Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own. -Nathan Rothschild Rothschild is said to have made a fortune buying assets in the wake of the Battle of Waterloo so in his case, he meant this literally. Another quote attributed [...]
Bring out your dead! CUSTOMER: Here's one. CART MASTER: Nine pence. DEAD PERSON: I'm not dead! CART MASTER: What? CUSTOMER: Nothing. Here's your nine pence. DEAD PERSON: I'm not dead! CART MASTER: 'Ere. He says he's not dead! CUSTOMER: Yes, he is. DEAD PERSON: I'm not! CART MASTER: He isn't? CUSTOMER: Well, he will be soon. He's very ill. DEAD PERSON: I'm getting better! CUSTOMER: No, you're not. You'll be stone dead in [...]
What is the state of the US economy? When will this long-anticipated recession finally arrive? And when it does, what does it mean for investors? Those are the questions everyone is asking and the answers are, well, hard. Despite years - decades, centuries? - of research, there is no accurate way I know of to predict the timing or depth [...]
I sit down every week to write these updates and sometimes it is a struggle to find something - anything - worth writing about. Sure, there's always market "news" so I can find something to fill the page and I hope you find it interesting but the fact is that I don't think any investor - as opposed to trader [...]
One of the toughest things about navigating this bear market and the widely anticipated coming recession is that we've had to differentiate between real and nominal economic and market variables like nothing in recent decades. There are very few market commentators today who have navigated an inflationary environment like the current one. I haven't either, of course, which is why [...]
The first quarter has come to a close and things have changed a lot...and not very much at all. Expectations coming into the year were that rates would peak in the spring at around 5% and then fall in the second half of the year to about 4.5%. That was the highest probability outcome according to the futures markets. Of [...]
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