Monthly closing price for SPY on the 1st day for the month from 2 years prior to a market high to 3 years after that top. The data points are indexed to the starting point 24 months before the market top. I know, I know, it's different this time. It's always different. Different is not a relative measure of anything. [...]
Where are interest rates going? Doug Terry, Alhambra's Head of Investment Research, offers his thoughts.
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun gives a refresher on nominal and real interest rates and what they're saying right now about the investor fear factor.
Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy. A report that wholesale inventories rose 0.6% cannot be turned into market moving [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun compares the similarities between today's bear market and past ones, plus last week's data on the economy, employment, and whether the new data points to recession.
I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow [...]
Since the summer of 2020, my expectation for the US economy has been that once all the COVID distortions are gone, it would revert to its previous trend growth of around 2%. And that seems to be exactly what is going on with the economy right now. There was a shift in consumption preference during COVID for goods over services [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses how last week's Federal Reserve meeting contained nothing new and actually confirmed what the markets have been saying about interest rates and recession.
Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Sherlock Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Sherlock Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” From Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, 1892 It is hard to determine sometimes what [...]
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