Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about whether the market sell-off is over, positive spots in the market, and underlying trends.
Weekly Market Pulse: All Clear?
Why did stocks sell off in recent months? Was it the emergence of the Omicron variant? That was a popular narrative right after Thanksgiving but that lasted less than a month before stocks decided to look past COVID make a new high right after the new year. Was the correction due to fears of the Fed raising interest rates and [...]
The Fed Inadvertently Adds To Our Ironclad Collateral Case Which Does Seem To Have Already Included A ‘Collateral Day’ (or days)
The Federal Reserve didn’t just raise the range for its federal funds target by 25 bps, upper and lower bounds, it also added the same to its twin policy tools which the “central bank” says are crucial to maintaining order in money markets thereby keeping federal funds inside the band where it is supposed to be. The FOMC voted to [...]
Not Born Yesterday
When even Bloomberg can’t help but notice, not just notice but then write about it, that’s significant. Normally a staunch water carrier for the official Federal Reserve position, these curves getting bent so far out of what would be better shapes aren’t so easy to just dismiss and ignore any longer. Jay Powell says household and business finances are holding [...]
Media Attention All Over FOMC, Market Attention Totally Elsewhere
The Federal Reserve did something today, or actually announced today that it will do something as of tomorrow. And since we’re all conditioned to believe this is the biggest thing ever, I’ll have to add my own $0.02 (in eurodollars, of course, can’t be bank reserves) frustratingly contributing to the very ritual I’m committed to seeing end.We shouldn’t care much [...]
There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 2]
Securities lending as standard practice is incredibly complicated, and for many the process can be counterintuitive. With numerous different players contributing various pieces across a wide array of financial possibilities, not to mention the whole expanse of global geography, collateral for collateral swaps have gone largely unnoticed by even mainstream Economics and central banking.This despite the fact, yes, fact, securities [...]
There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 1]
With the 7s10s already inverted, and the 5s today mere bps away, making a macro case for the distortion isn’t too difficult. Despite China’s “upside” economic data today, even the Chinese are talking more about their downside worries (shooting/hoping for “stability”) than strength. In the US or Europe, no matter the CPIs in either place there are cyclical (not just [...]
China Posts *Some* Kind of Upside
They zig when they were supposed to zag. China’s PBOC was widely expected to drop its MLF rate, triggering the same for bank LPR (loan prime rate) which will be published this upcoming Monday morning (Beijing time). It would have been the third rate cut since December, though it should be noted Chinese authorities had already refrained from action in [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about whether we are in a bear market, facts about the economy, credit spreads, yield curve, interest rates, changes to Alhambra Portfolios, and why you must have an investment plan that includes strategy AND tactics.
Another One Inverts, The Retching Cat Reaches Treasuries
As Alan Greenspan’s rate hikes closed in, longer-term Treasury yields were forced upward as the flattening yield curve left no more room for their blatant defiance. By mid-2005, though, the market wasn’t ready to fully price the downside risks which had already led to that worrisome curve shape (very flat). While all sorts of bad potential could be reasonably surmised, [...]
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