The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn't true on a global basis, as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs. But here in the [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about Omicron and market movement, the big picture of economic recovery, and the U.S. Dollar uptrend.
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the hazards of financial news, over-speculation in the market, the prudent person investment rule & reports on retail sales, industrial production, and the housing market index.
Alhambra CEO Joseph Y. Calhoun discusses the Katona effect in light of last week's 10-year low consumer sentiment number and the 30-year high inflation number.
Consumer sentiment hit a decade low last month, falling 6 points from an already low level. The culprit? Inflation, which we learned last week hit a 3 decade high in October. And if the founder of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is right, the next thing we'll see is an economic slowdown. George Katona was a psychologist who [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun reviews good and not-so-good economic reports from last week, new highs in the markets, and the growing trend of speculation with stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Almost all the economic data released last week was better than expected. ISM manufacturing PMI, Redbook retail sales, ISM non-manufacturing PMI (an all-time high), factory orders (headline and ex-transportation), ADP employment, jobless claims (new post-COVID low), non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, manufacturing employment, all better than expected. There were some disappointing reports: construction spending was down 0.5%, the trade deficit [...]
Alhambra CEO talks about last week's reversal in bonds yields, if there's a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.
A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I'm so glad you [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun describes the move in bonds last week, what it means, and how it's different than a similar move in the spring of 2021.
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