In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche The new year got off to quite a bang last week. It was almost as if someone flipped a switch and investors/traders suddenly decided that all that stuff they believed last year was just so passe. Growth stocks? Nah, who wants [...]
177.1 Eurodollar Warning Confirmed(?) by USA GER JPN & CHN———Ep 177.1 Summary———The Eurodollar futures curve inverted on December 1st - what's happened since? Also, does the American, German and Japanese sovereign bond market corroborate the Eurodollar futures warning? Lastly, does China's lowering of its bank Required Reserve Ratio buttress the E$ warning too? ———Ep 177.1 Topics——— 00:00 INTRO: Updating the [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about whether inflation has peaked, the JOLTS report, new company formations, consumer sentiment, and what investors should do to wrap up 2021.
175.3 Trick Question: How Much QE Will Move the Bond Market———Ep 175.3 Summary———Since 2008 the pace of purchases, sales - and everything in between - has not affected the price of bond yields. Indeed, bond yields seem to go the opposite way of they're 'supposed' to act. But what about the stock of purchases? Is there a total, that once [...]
175.2 RED ALERT: Eurodollar Futures Curve Inverts Pt. 2———Ep 175.2 Summary———When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it's a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That's a warning too; a monetary Red Alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. Welcome to Hades. ———Ep 175.2 Topics——— 00:00 [...]
175.1 RED ALERT: Eurodollar Futures Curve Inverts Pt. 1 ———Ep 175.1 Summary———You've heard that when the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That is a warning too. A monetary red alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. ———Ep [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about last week's economic reports versus the bond market, what the bond market is telling us, Omicron and its effect on the market, and what investors should be watching right now.
The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn't true on a global basis, as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs. But here in the [...]
168.3 Economic Growth Scare: Are Markets Rightly Scared?———Ep 168.3 Summary———The nominal value of Chinese imports of iron ore, German exports and Japanese exports all look pretty, pretty good. But the unit volume is pretty, pretty awful. There are fewer units being utilized! This is an economic warning that is presently hidden behind hire prices (value = unit * price). ———Ep [...]
168.2 Federal Reserve HAS NOT rigged the bond market ———Ep 168.2 Summary———The Federal Reserve, and other central banks, buy tremendous amounts of government securities and this should impact bond prices. Should, but doesn't. That's because there's an even more powerful force than the Fed, the bond market itself. We review the 2007-19 evidence. ———Ep 168.2 Topics——— 00:00 INTRO: Has the Federal [...]
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