Market & Economic Analysis

"Study the past if you would devine the future." - Confucius

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 89, Part 1: T-bill Scarcity So Obvious Jay Powell Tells Congress About It

89.1 Jay Powell Sees Safe-Asset Demand Surge; Why?———Ep 89.1 Summary———Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is step one along a well-trod path towards a malfunctioning economy. Here's what happens next. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear [...]

By |2021-07-21T16:50:34-04:00July 21st, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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From China: Dollar, Deflation, And The RRRest

It’s not necessarily a discrepancy so much as maybe looking at the same thing from a different point of view. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reports on, among other things, the widest definition of foreign assets being under its whole national umbrella. Yet, the agency publishes balances denominated not in CNY, either US$’s or SDR’s (hey, they can [...]

By |2021-07-21T16:44:25-04:00July 21st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Sorry, One More On Bills: Today A Really Good Example of All The Things We’ve Been Focused On Lately

I had intended to lay off the T-bills today, just to write about something else, anything else, but, as often occurs, circumstances intervened. We’ve been subjecting you to seemingly unrelenting focus on Treasury bills’ various follies this year. The reason is quite simple, and trading early in the morning today a very good example both of “what” and “why.”FRBNY last [...]

By |2021-07-20T17:44:36-04:00July 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Lower Yields And (fewer) Bills

Back on February 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell stopped by (in a virtual, Zoom sense) the Senate Banking Committee to testify as required by law. In the Q&A portion, he was asked the following by Montana’s Senator Steve Daines: SENATOR DAINES. I just was looking at the T bill chart and noticing since the 1st of February, the one [...]

By |2021-07-19T19:55:10-04:00July 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Inching Closer To Another Warning, This One From Japan

Central bankers nearly everywhere have succumbed to recovery fever. This has been a common occurrence among their cohort ever since the earliest days of the crisis; the first one. Many of them, or their predecessors, since this standard of fantasyland has gone on for so long, had caught the malady as early as 2007 and 2008 when the world was [...]

By |2021-07-19T17:14:52-04:00July 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Weekly Market Pulse: As Clear As Mud

Is there anyone left out there who doesn't know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10-year TIPS yields have fallen by the same amount and now reside below -1% again. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low, and are [...]

By |2021-07-19T08:07:27-04:00July 18th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 88, Part 3: Looking Forward

88.3 PMIs: The Economy's Forward Looking Indicators ———Ep 88.3 Summary———A review of US, Chinese and global purchasing manager indices for manufacturing and services shows just a few too many "not great" readings. Not necessarily bad but within the context of HUGE 'money printing' and GIGA deficit blowouts shouldn't the economy be rip-roaring? ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr [...]

By |2021-07-16T19:09:01-04:00July 16th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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Dead Data Inflation

Count retail sales (US) among the dead data. Like recent CPI’s and PPI’s, consumer spending on goods continues to be sky high – and yet markets (even stocks) don’t seem to care. For the month of June 2021, the Census Bureau believes total sales were up when compared to May, though not much as May’s estimate was revised lower. At [...]

By |2021-07-16T16:33:03-04:00July 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 88, Part 2: Reversal of Fortunes, and Global Interest Rates from Japan to Germany and a Bunch In Between

88.2 Germany's Economy Wobbles - Are We Next? ———Ep 88.2 Summary———The yields on German sovereign bonds began to tumble in May - now we know why. German Factory Orders and Industrial Production delivered lousy results that month. Germany is an export power so these negatives say a lot about the global customer - that's us. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ [...]

By |2021-07-15T19:30:14-04:00July 15th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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