Though there’s not much to add, it’s worth bringing this up again. In the era of gigantic positives, why aren't sentiment surveys so much more positive than they are? It's because these PMI numbers aren’t what you’re being told they are. After such a huge contraction, mid-50’s is a bomb; mid-50’s (the best ones) in August 2020 is a real [...]
On June 24, Europe’s central bank, the ECB, settled what it called T-LTRO III. Technically, this was an open market operation (OMO) and therefore a specific kind of LTRO. The “T” part of the program doesn’t really matter unless you happen to be running the short desk at a major European bank. For the public, the Roman numeral “III” added [...]
This one will also be simple but doesn't need to be lengthy. What is a flat Phillips Curve? It’s not just something Richard Clarida dreamed up recently. The idea has been talked about more and more as the inflation “puzzle” showed up disproving the LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! - meaning full employment and recovery narrative – over the past few years. Here’s [...]
You can (and should) read the entire text of Richard Clarida’s speech delivered today (via webcast) for the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman’s remarks are a perfect example of the unnecessary gobbledygook that Economists like him reach for when clarity is warranted. You’d think after being unable to meet their definitions for their statutory mandate on [...]
———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, incredibly irresponsible. Artwork by David Parkins, the Eurodollar University version of W. W. Denslow. Podcast intro/outro is "So Many Secrets" by Gavin Luke [...]
If you have to work overtime just to catch up to where you were supposed to be, you haven’t done a good job. It’s really that simple. And in the context of inflation, therefore legitimate economic growth as distinguished from fake booms, that’s really all bond yields are.The lower rates go, and the longer they stay lower, the more they [...]
Why the big deal about the Fed’s new grand strategy? For one thing, as noted yesterday, there’s that whole lost decade which policymakers finally have acknowledged. They’ve quite a lot of catching up to do, but have waited for the most inopportune moment to…basically do more of the same things that hadn’t accomplished anything other than lose an entire decade.Already [...]
———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, hairball-retching the USD:CNY to 15. Artwork by David Parkins, a Flying Circus surrealist. Podcast intro/outro is “By [...]
After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?I’m talking, of course, about Jackson Hole and Jay Powell’s reportedly genius masterstroke. There’s a lot [...]
Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable. [...]
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