Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises
We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP [...]
Market Morsels: Mortgage Spread
The spread between the 10 year and the 30 year mortgage is starting to normalize. If this continues and mortgage rates keep coming down, housing could turn soon and start adding to GDP:
Market Morsels: Crude Oil
Crude oil futures have returned to backwardation after a couple of months of contango. Near-term demand improved relative to supply. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html#venue=globex The crude oil chart looks like it is setting up for a rally:
Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Recession Finally Here?
The financial commentariat first started to worry about recession in April of 2022 when the spread between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 2-year Treasury rate turned negative - the yield curve inverted. It subsequently [...]
Market Pulse: Presidential Portfolios
It's an election year and you know what that means. Yes, every four years we gather as a nation, a democratic nation, to decide which of the two candidates for President available to us is [...]
Perspective On A New Year
I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain [...]
Macro: Factory Orders
Similar to the Advanced Durable Goods orders release from 2 weeks ago, broad factory orders remain choppy and have generally flat-lined or perhaps have a slight positive slope to their medium term growth vector. YoY [...]
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