GDPNow — down on the week — as are bond yields
After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week. [...]
Macro: JPMorgan Global PMI
Global manufacturing is consolidating in slightly contractionary territory at 49.3 in November up from 48.8 last month and a 6th consecutive below 50. In addition to the composite, Output (49.9), New Orders (48.9), New Export [...]
Macro: ISM Mfg PMI
The ISM PMI came in unchanged in November at 46.7, the 13th consecutive month this series has indicated contraction in manufacturing. On a positive note, though current production dropped, new orders rose. Other data points [...]
Macro: Construction spending
Construction spending growth accelerates again. This is all about non-residential construction spend which is growing at 20% yoy whereas residential spend is only growing by 1% but is at least finally a positive contributor. To [...]
Macro: Chicago Business Barometer — Wow!
This number was truly stunning and almost unbelievable. Chi-palm as we used to call in back in the day jumped from a recessionary level of 44 to 55.8. The index has done this when exiting [...]
Macro: Incomes and Consumption Expenditures — a good report — be careful what you wish for
This was a very positive report. The consumer is showing no signs of pulling back or needing to pull back in the near term, buoying GDP and GDP expectations. Interest rates float higher on the [...]
Macro: Unemployment Claims
We are still at historically low levels of both initial and continuing claims. And we are concerned and watching as the trend looks to be on the rise. Weekly continuing claims continues to be above [...]
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