As a weekly number, this is your leading indicator for employment and it just broke below 200,000 again after a recent peak of 265,000 in early June. It continues to be historically fantastic, better than about 95% of history going back to 1967. Btw, I did remove some of the data from 2020, the unprecedented jump in claims to close [...]
A slight improvement in current conditions for manufacturing in the region, but still negative. Feelings about New Orders improved and jumped into positive territory. Similar to the New York release, trending in the right direction. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy [...]
I've been reading some lately about all the housing units that are coming to market and the likely hit to house prices and rents that will accompany this supply. Looking at the housing pipeline (Units permitted but not started + Units started + Units under construction + Units completed this month), we are elevated by about 680,000 units on an [...]
There's no sugar coating it, this is the worst number of the week. This survey is meant to be looked at in conjunction with yesterday's Empire State Mfg Survey but is is broader and more general. After recovering most of the year, we saw some softness in Sept. The Oct number fell off a cliff and is just above the [...]
Industrial production broadly appears to have 0% growth since March and to be treading water. But, the general direction is better than it looks from that view. Since the 4th quarter of 2022 was so bad, if we continue this trajectory, the annual growth will start to show up. What's not quite as inspiring is that the growth is mostly [...]
The street applauded this number and bond yields soared. The market initially sold off as bond yields hit 4.83%, a new cycle high. Stocks were down as much as 1.5% before recovering all their losses by lunchtime. I think the retail sales number confirms the strength of the 3rd quarter. Optimism for earnings is currently outweighing higher interest rates. In [...]
If you’re 65 years old and still working, you may be part of an elite group of American workers. Pew Research Center, in its latest jobs survey, found that employees aged 65 and older are the happiest employees in the workforce. The survey found: Two-thirds of those 65+ are extremely or very satisfied with their jobs, compared with: 55% of [...]
Our first look at October numbers. Similar to the consumer sentiment report, we did see a down tick from last month and the survey did go back into negative territory. But, from a broader perspective we are still trending positive off the lows at the end of 2022. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and [...]
The consumer is pessimistic relative to history. There was a down tick from last month. We don't know if the down tick means anything. The same thing happened in May and the consumer became more optimistic over the next 3 months. The broader trend is still up off the historic lows at the of 2022.
I said a couple of years ago that I thought that once all the distortions were past, we'd be back to where we started prior to COVID, but with more debt. The decade from 2010 to 2020 was the slowest decade of nominal GDP growth since WWII and the prospect of another decade of that wasn't all that appealing but [...]
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