After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week.

The big dial mover was today’s ISM report. Specifically the report had negative repercussions for goods consumption, business equipment investment and goods exports.

Rates have come down commensurately. And expectations for rate cuts have risen. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 57.5% chance of a rate cut by the March meeting in 2024. That is up from a 13.5% probability at the beginning of November and only a 21% chance just a week ago.

 

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