Here’s a summary of last week’s global geopolitical events that inform us on regional happenings that are pertinent for investing. We read a lot, but must thank our strategic partners who curate so much information and provide a deeper context. We’re always watching. Our partners have been vetted for expertise and independence. Links to their sites are at the end of the post.

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Israel

This is unfortunate that US is most likely leaking it’s ally’s war plans. After recent gutting (assassination) of leadership Blinken and Biden and Co are interested in de-escalation.  Almost certainly a high level US leak of Israeli military plans.

Israel retaliates against Iran again. Friday Night Attack not as big as expected, leaves room to negotiate.

Israel strikes Al-Qard Al-Hassan, bank in Lebanon that helps fund Hezbollah: The money is the source.

Eastern Europe/Ukraine/Russia

Russia hikes interest rates to record 21%. Want to invest in Russia? Interest Rates at an All-Time High!

Unlikely partners? Israel and Ukraine sharing intelligence and technology to counter Russia and Iran. Israel and Ukraine Partnership

Should Russia succeed in taking Ukraine, Moldova could be next. Taking Moldova would provide Russia better geography for securing their border as they move closer to the Carpathian Mountain Range which would provide them a natural border. Moldova

Tilt toward the EU has thin margins: Moldova 2

Moldova 3

Georgia: More EU v Russia tensions, Georgia 1. Historic elections yes, but Georgian Foreign Influencer Law threatens bid for EU membership. Georgia 2

Biden Administration tells Armenia and Azerbaijan to work it out. By the end of the year!

North Korea

The approximately 200 munition factories in North Korea are operating at full capacity to supply Russia. Supplies running low.

North Korean troops expected to be deployed in Ukraine on or around 10/27-10/28.. North Korean Soldiers head to Ukraine

Tokyo: North Korean troops in Ukraine is a broader and serious concern. 1500 Troops to join the front lines, broader implications?

Cuba

Power Infrastructure, could Cuba turn to the US? Cuba: A Strategic Asset.

Cuba’s power problems. Who is stepping up to provide aid? Strategic Asset 2

Hurricane Oscar adds to Cuban difficulties. Oscar adds insult to injury.

BRICS

The BRICS summit in Russia this week: The goal of the BRICS is “a vision of a world in which the United States does not lead.” Part of this vision includes “constructing a new financial architecture less dependent on the U.S. dollar.” Antonia Colibasanu reports an “underwhelming summit.” Disappointingly for the bloc, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Argentina and Saudi Arabia all decided not to attend. 2024–Not a great showing

Serbia Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Vulin expresses concern about the EU as a going concern. Says BRICS offers a “real alternative.” (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa….Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, UAE) EU not a viable alternative?

Chip Wars

This doesn’t surprise anyone, TSMC chips found in Huawei product. Sanctions like these are hard to enforce.

We may be in violation?

De-constructed Huawei product contains TSMC chips

Missile Defense: Patriot and Lockheed Martin

US Military to ramp production of Patriot Missiles to counter highly maneuverable Chinese supersonic weapons (Japan, Lockheed Martin): https://www.reuters.com/world/fearing-chinas-hypersonic-weapons-us-navy-seeks-arm-ships-with-patriot-missiles-2024-10-25/

Space Exploration

Space X booster recovery is significant. The ability to re-use expensive items like a booster lowers the cost of transport back and forth from earth to space. This is 1-step closer to manufacturing in space. Economic importance of Space

US Regulation/Red Tape

“For the first time under President Joe Biden, a federal permit for a new lithium-boron mine has been approved for a Nevada project…” https://apnews.com/article/lithium-mine-endangered-flower-nevada-biden-ioneer-a943364661c24a928d590eb17b00a92b

Inflation and Global Growth

India’s cotton production to fall next year: Cotton Supply

IMF US, Brazil and Britain to see better growth than expected. China, Japan and EU’s prospects are not as good. Global military conflicts are not an insignificant issue. Changes in IMF outlook

Turkey

The Kurds attack a Turkish Defense company and Turkey retaliates in Iraq and Syria: Middle East Fallout: One of Turkey’s Major Concerns

Strategic Partners

Geopolitical Futures

Peter Zeihan

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