There’s no sugar coating it, this is the worst number of the week. This survey is meant to be looked at in conjunction with yesterday’s Empire State Mfg Survey but is is broader and more general. After recovering most of the year, we saw some softness in Sept. The Oct number fell off a cliff and is just above the level of pessimism we saw back in January after the abysmal 4th quarter of 2022. I think stock market performance last year likely affected the Jan 2023 print of -21.4. The market has been slightly negative here recently at least relative to the strength over the summer. This index did bottom in March 2009 and April/May 2020, so the market is having some affect on these “business leaders.” Is this causation or correlation (shrugging emoji)?

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