As is my custom, I'll be taking a break from these weekly updates for the rest of the year. That doesn't mean I'll be loafing my way to year end though. I'll probably do some short posts as things come up before year end but my main focus will be on the 2026 outlook that we'll publish in a couple [...]
Are US markets, once again, in a bubble? Are AI stocks overvalued or are they discounting a new age of prosperity driven by big gains in productivity? What about gold? It's up over 50% this year, signaling...what exactly? Gold is a fear asset that usually shines when the economy is bad and stocks aren't doing so well. So, why is [...]
All my economists say 'on one hand' then 'but on the other'. Can't someone bring me a one-handed economist? Maybe Harry Truman but on the other hand maybe Charles Frederick Carter or on the other hand maybe it was a one-armed economist Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole last Friday was widely perceived as a capitulation, an admission that rate [...]
When the June employment figures were released last month, I said there was likely a seasonal adjustment problem with the numbers and that a large part of the government jobs supposedly created would likely be revised away. The employment report was reported as better-than-expected but the details weren’t as positive. Of the total of 147k new jobs reported, only 74k [...]
You can't be serious! You cannot be serious! - John McEnroe, challenging a fault call at Wimbledon, 1981 That's what went through my head when President Trump unveiled his "reciprocal" tariffs on Wednesday last week. The tariffs unveiled on Trump's "Liberation Day": are the largest tax increase since at least 1968 and maybe in our entire history. impose an average [...]
By the time you read this, markets around the world will be reacting to the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional tariffs on China. I don't know what exactly that reaction will be although it seems unlikely to be positive, at least initially. Regardless of the market reaction, investors need to be careful not to [...]
I don't spend a lot of time trying to predict the future, mostly because, as I pointed out just last week, I'm not very good at it. There's no shame in that and it doesn't impair my ability to invest; the gift of prophecy is not necessary. A couple of weeks ago, right before the election I speculated on what [...]
To everything turn, turn, turn There is a season turn, turn, turn And a time to every purpose under Heaven A time to be born, a time to die A time to plant, a time to reap A time to kill, a time to heal A time to laugh, a time to weep To everything turn, turn, turn There is [...]
It's Fed week again, when the monetary mandarins gather to set interest rates and guide the economy according to the latest 3-year plan (central planning may not have worked for the communists but our people are smarter). This is a quarterly meeting when they'll sift through the tea leaves or gaze into their crystal balls or whatever they do to [...]
The economic data wasn't particularly shocking or weak but it seemed as if last week may have marked a change in the economic outlook. The 10-year Treasury note yield only fell 7 basis points on the week but that only tells part of the story. Rates rose strongly on Monday, up 15 basis points at the high of the day. [...]
Stay In Touch