Oil jumped 7.5% last Friday in the wake of the Israeli attack on Iran but the reaction in most other markets was surprisingly muted. The dollar, which normally catches a bid in these situations, was up just 0.27% and US Treasuries actually sold off on the news. Gold was the preferred safe haven this time, up 1.4% on the week. [...]
In about five weeks, the pause on President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs will expire. So far, the US has come to an agreement, of sorts, with exactly one country - the UK. That outline of an agreement so far doesn't mean anything because the full terms haven't been agreed to nor implemented. In other words, we don't yet have a [...]
Stocks have rebounded over the last three weeks from the initial shock of the "liberation day" tariffs announced on April 8th. The S&P 500 is now down just 2.5% since the close on the day of the announcement (they were announced after the market close). There have been some changes to the initial tariff levels but even the reduced levels [...]
You can't be serious! You cannot be serious! - John McEnroe, challenging a fault call at Wimbledon, 1981 That's what went through my head when President Trump unveiled his "reciprocal" tariffs on Wednesday last week. The tariffs unveiled on Trump's "Liberation Day": are the largest tax increase since at least 1968 and maybe in our entire history. impose an average [...]
There wasn't a lot of economic news last week but it was largely as expected and seemed pretty good. Job openings rose, there was no rise in jobless claims even after the large layoffs in the government sector, and the inflation reports were better than expected. What's not to like? We didn't get any big moves in bonds or currencies [...]
Uncertainty around economic policy is near all-time highs with most of that focused on trade policy. Is the uncertainty part of President Trump’s plan? Or part of his negotiating strategy? I have no idea but the effects are obvious and negative, not just for the stock market, but for the economy as a whole. But how negative? I've been getting [...]
Okay, I confess. It was my fault. I decided to take a couple of days off. I took my eye off the ball and the stock market fell a quick 2% while I was relaxing, eating too much, and seeing some great art in the Holy City, Charleston, SC. I promise it won't happen again, at least until my wife [...]
Since the beginning of the year, gold is up nearly 12% while the S&P 500 is only up a little over 4%, an outcome that is feeding a lot of narratives about it's cause. There have been rumors about the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury buying gold because the US is preparing to devalue the dollar or maybe issue [...]
President Trump's first week on the job was a good one for markets. The S&P 500 was up 1.75%, with tech stocks taking the lead as the President welcomed a group of leading technology CEOs to D.C. to announce big investments in AI. Well, not so much to announce as to re-announce, since finding something new in the press release [...]
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H.L. Mencken By the time you read this we'll have a new President. Well, actually, he's an old President, but whatever we think we know about him from his first term may not be much help in the second. The group of people about to take [...]
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