Revisions to second quarter GDP were exceedingly small. The BEA reduced the estimate by a little less than $800 million out of nearly $20 trillion (seasonally-adjusted annual rate). The growth rate therefore declined from 2.03502% (continuously compounded annual rate) to 2.01824%. The release also gave us the first look at second quarter corporate profits. Like the headline GDP revisions, there [...]
You can see it in the GDP numbers, even before they were revised. Globally synchronized growth was always less impressive than what it was made out to be. It’s as true overseas as in the US. The upswing was endlessly hyped, but there was so much less behind it in reality. Reflation #2 was a whole lot better than Reflation [...]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) piled on more bad news to the otherwise pleasing GDP headline for the first quarter. In its first revision to the preliminary estimate, the government agency said output advanced just a little less than first thought. This wasn’t actually the substance of their message. Accompanying this first revision was the first set of estimates [...]
The BEA has completed its unscheduled departure from its release schedule. Due to the prior federal government shutdown, the government agency was only able to put together two estimates for Q4 2018 real GDP. The first had seemed to calm some fears that US growth was wobbly toward the end of last year, aligning uncomfortably with what we are more [...]
What is the Greenspan or Fed put? It is an idea, the legend that says the US central bank will only allow a little downside in stocks. The 1929 crash despite being so long ago has been indelibly imprinted upon the machinations of policymakers. Some say they can’t see a big slide without the Great Depression. Therefore, they will do [...]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised Q2 GDP to a 4.07464% continuously compounded annual rate from 4.13987%. More importantly, the BEA provided revised benchmark estimates for corporate profits. The good news is that the benchmark was higher. The bad news is that companies still aren’t making any money. All the revisions applied to long ago years (2008 and 2009 [...]
The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over year shows a little different [...]
You’ve heard all the ridiculous explanations for the labor market’s big deficiency. When not attempting to characterize payrolls as strong, Economists have tried to explain the participation problem through opioids and Baby Boomers. According to this absurd theory, businesses just can’t find enough willing or able workers to grow in a more normal fashion. That’s the unemployment rate. What they [...]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised upward fourth quarter 2017 Real GDP. The second estimate had been revised lower to 2.50458% (continuously compounded annual rate of change) from the advanced estimate. The third and final calculation raises the quarterly increase to 2.84707%. None of the changes are substantial. Accompanying these revisions are the BEA’s first assessments for Corporate Profits [...]
Construction spending rose slightly in August after two months of serious declines. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1.22 trillion, that’s slightly less than the estimate for November 2016 when “reflation” (sentiment) was at its apex. It’s a pattern that we see repeated throughout the economic accounts; some growth in the second half of last year but then instead of [...]
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