Stocks finally took a breather last week, down about 1.5%, mostly due to a downdraft Friday that was "blamed" on a good employment report. Jobs increased by 295k in February and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% (although that was mostly due to a drop in the participation rate) and that, according to the pundits, means the timeline for a [...]
The US stock market made another all time high last week amid more mediocre - at best - US economic data. Much of the gain was credited to positive developments in the geopolitical arena as a ceasefire was announced in Ukraine and negotiations continued on Greek debt relief with some positive signs that an agreement might be reached. Whether either [...]
Here is a summary of this week's research from our strategic partner MRB. Allocation: Trades to consider: "Short global luxury stocks versus multiline retailers." "Short 10-year U.S. Treasuries outright." As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns. Find out about your personal risk profile and working with Alhambra Click here to sign up for our free [...]
There is still no evidence that the US economy is doing anything but continued sputtering. This is not news to the rest of the world, however, as the persistent lack of actual American “demand” has been felt nearly everywhere. Domestic economists, and a great many foreign counterparts, continue to see the US as the sole engine of economic hope. But [...]
The cyclical rebound in global return on equity has further to run in an economic recovery scenario, despite having softened modestly in the past year. Earnings will be a tailwind for stock prices. Global equities are fairly valued relative to corporate profitability. Valuations are not an impediment to further stock price gains, and indeed have scope to increase as investor [...]
Terminology and semantics have an important place in communication because we want to convey concise and accurate meaning as efficiently as possible. That is why I disdain the term “petrodollar” when speaking or writing about the global exchange standard that replaced gold in the Bretton Woods sense. The idea of a “petrodollar” conveys some of the “right” characteristics but leaves [...]
As much as overseas markets, particularly emerging, have come roaring back in a lot of places, there is still palpable unease in dollar allocations. That is as much expected as any kind of erosion or dysfunction will take a meandering course of ebbs and flows. But I am a little surprised at how easy the concerns of last year have [...]
Even though the data is stale by the time of its eventual release, I think the TIC figures still maintain some relevance. If nothing else, even on a rear-facing basis, it provides more consistent data to confirm or deny previous narratives. To this point, that description includes central banks mobilizing dollar assets to deflect continuous dollar funding difficulties. The February [...]
The news from China this morning was unexpected only to those who still cling to the idea that the PBOC control is omnipresent. Exports were down 6.6% Y/Y in March (after dropping 18.1% Y/Y in February), while imports simply collapsed 11.3% Y/Y. Since China has been operating as the global trade pivot, the results on both sides of the trade [...]
The term “bellwether” is derived from Middle English and the practice of placing a bell on a castrated ram (wether) as he led his flock from place to place. That way, no matter the weather or topography, a shepherd would have a good idea where the flock was located and where they were going by listening for the sound of [...]
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