The stock market was down a little over 2% last week in what may be the start of a larger correction. Or not. Technically it is easy to make a case for a little more downside to the 50-day moving average, a total pullback of about 5%, and then a resumption of the uptrend. That's what happens in bull markets. [...]
You've probably heard the phrase "soft landing" a lot lately. It has, over the last couple of months, become the new economic consensus. The economy continues to perform better than expected despite the Fed raising interest rates steadily - and fairly rapidly - over the last year. The most recent hike was just this past week and put the Fed [...]
A few weeks ago, it appeared to me that stocks were starting a correction. I was clearly wrong about that as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have moved higher since then and the rally has broadened out. And thank goodness since the things I own are mostly the parts of the market that benefitted from the broadening. Stocks tend to [...]
Why aren't we in recession yet? That's a question that has been asked often over the last year but with no real satisfying answer. I have my own beliefs on the subject, rooted in the distortions of COVID. (You can read about it in my latest Follow The Money piece) I think my explanation is a pretty good one but even [...]
It appears we have started the third correction in stocks since the bottom in October of last year. The first one was in December and saw the S&P 500 fall about 8% from peak to trough. The second one was from February into mid-March and totaled about 9%. I don't know how far this one might carry but a pullback [...]
I spend a lot of time thinking about what "everyone" else believes about the economy and markets. If you've been reading my weekly scribblings for any time, you know I have little faith in the soothsayers of this industry. No one knows what the future holds, least of all that group of crystal ball gazers known as economic forecasters. Most [...]
In order to get inflation to 2%, how much demand do you have to kill or how much does credit have to tighten to offset the new interest income in the economy and a 6.1% fiscal deficit per year for the next decade? Inflation will be higher for longer. The Fed by necessity will have a higher implicit if not [...]
I am changing the format of these weekly updates. Rather than publishing one long weekly note, the weekend note will cover just the market and economic news of the week. The general commentary portion will be published another day during the week. We will also be publishing some new research notes during the week. The Monday email will include links [...]
The stock market surged last Friday after the employment report showed a gain of over 300k jobs while the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings fell to 4.3%. That was the popular explanation and it makes sense; continued economic growth and fading inflation pressures would certainly seem a big positive (although wages have little to do with the recent bout [...]
Every time we hear, watch, or read the news, we are reminded that liberty is a rare commodity in this world. - Ronald Reagan It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God such men lived. - George S. Patton In the End, we will remember not the words of our [...]
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