interest rates

What CPI (and PPI)?

By |2021-05-13T19:30:20-04:00May 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The way it has been described since, yesterday’s CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. There is no more argument, apparently, and if that wasn’t apparent enough then today it was followed up with even more highly-touted evidence. Producer prices, the PPI, came up even more over-the-moon than those for consumers.The commodities portion, no [...]

How Can Anyone In Their Right Mind Say This Much Inflation Is Transitory?

By |2021-05-12T17:33:03-04:00May 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Friday, July 14, 2000, was a bad day to be in Treasuries. The 10-year UST yield spiked 9 bps after the Census Bureau reported June 2000 retail sales growth had been nearly 10% year-over-year. That plus a similarly pleasant reading from the Federal Reserve for Industrial Production left bond traders rethinking their trades, a sudden burst of inflationary confidence which [...]

Everything? *Everything* Screams?

By |2021-05-05T19:26:23-04:00May 5th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Maybe it’s just me, but if you’re going to scream about everyone screaming about inflation it’s probably not a good idea to use Janet Yellen’s face as this idea’s avatar. Even if most in the public likely don’t know why, this can’t help your credibility with the rest who absolutely do. And by “the rest”, who do I mean? A [...]

Global, Not Term Premiums: What Low Yields Really Say

By |2021-05-04T17:18:32-04:00May 4th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The standard explanation for low bond yields has been driven by – who else? – Ben Bernanke summing up the view from econometrics. Term premiums, he says, these made-up decomposition components which only allow for QE to save a tiny bit of its face. In other words, QE obviously didn’t lead to recovery, it sure didn’t create modest let alone [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Peaking? Already?

By |2021-04-26T08:09:23-04:00April 25th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

April 15th was the two-week anniversary of the day my wife and I got our second Moderna shot. We have spent the last 13 months being very careful about the virus, limiting our contacts, social distancing, and generally doing anything that seemed helpful. I am certainly aware that others took a more liberal attitude as is their right. But, for [...]

Bonds v. Economists 5

By |2021-04-16T18:48:55-04:00April 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given the historic data for US retail sales, “somehow” the bond market ignored them yesterday (and today). Yields globally fell for the most part, with real yields (TIPS) really discounting the significance of consumers in March. Bonds aren’t buying that this is anything other than temporary.Not surprisingly, the mainstream media refuses not to buy what bonds aren’t. I mean, for [...]

Why *Only* That Specific One?

By |2021-04-14T19:49:23-04:00April 14th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On February 23, the US Treasury sold off $60 billion and change of 2-year notes (CUSIP 91282CBN0). This particular shorter-term instrument has been in the crosshairs of the reflation trade, lurching in and out of it going back to last October, perhaps even late September. Caught up being the immediate tenor following the bills which have been bid (for “some” [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Nothing To See Here. No, Really. Nothing.

By |2021-04-12T07:58:44-04:00April 12th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The answer to the question, "What should I do to my portfolio today (this week, this month)? is almost always nothing. Humans, and especially portfolio managers, have a hard time believing that doing nothing is the right response....to anything...or nothing. We are programmed to believe that success comes from doing things, not not doing things. And so, often we look [...]

Maybe The Biggest Challenge Is Not To Get Carried Away

By |2021-04-06T12:38:25-04:00April 6th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like a child fixated on a shiny new toy, I was enthralled by trading in WTI futures on Monday. There are times when end-of-day closing prices just don’t capture the full extent of what actually goes on during the several hours of any regular session, and yesterday was certainly one of those times. We’ve been on top of front-end contango [...]

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