Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems. There is a path by which these policies can be implemented without material adverse consequences, but it is narrow, and will require currency offset for tariffs and either gradualism or [...]
Uncertainty around economic policy is near all-time highs with most of that focused on trade policy. Is the uncertainty part of President Trump’s plan? Or part of his negotiating strategy? I have no idea but the effects are obvious and negative, not just for the stock market, but for the economy as a whole. But how negative? I've been getting [...]
Have more than thou showest, Speak less than thou knowest, Lend less than thou owest, Ride more than thou goest, Learn more than thou trowest, Set less than thou throwest; Leave thy drink and thy whore, And keep in-a-door, And thou shalt have more Than two tens to a score. King Lear, Act 1, Scene 4 My grandmother was [...]
There were two important inflation reports last week. One of them, the Producer Price Index, focuses on wholesale prices and it showed inflation hotter than expected in April. The year-over-year change bottomed in June of last year at just 0.3% and has been rising steadily since then. It now stands at 2.2%. The market reaction to this report was - [...]
This was a really good number. It was partially a rebound from October. Non-store retailers were a big area of strength. I do think some holiday sales were pulled forward. Regardless, December is an easy comp, so next month's release should again be fine. Year over year sales grew 4.1%. Consumer strength continues. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational [...]
Retail sales make up about a quarter of GDP, so an important monthly number. I saw a lot of headlines saying this was a disappointing number. But that isn't the case, the print was actually good. Sequentially, expectations were low for this print because September 2023 and October of 2022 were so strong. The sequential number was expected at -.3% [...]
The street applauded this number and bond yields soared. The market initially sold off as bond yields hit 4.83%, a new cycle high. Stocks were down as much as 1.5% before recovering all their losses by lunchtime. I think the retail sales number confirms the strength of the 3rd quarter. Optimism for earnings is currently outweighing higher interest rates. In [...]
Is the US economy on the verge of recession? Is it already in recession? We have several indications that the US economy is slowing and at least one that points to recession soon and maybe now. From the Conference Board's release of its Leading Economic Indicators last week: “The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy [...]
Investors crave certainty. They want to know that there are definitive signals for them to follow as they adjust their investments to fit the current market and economy. They want to know that A leads to B leads to C. Tea leaf readers are always in high demand on Wall Street and they continue to find employment despite their almost [...]
Note: This update is longer than usual but I felt a comprehensive review was necessary. The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The S&P 500 is now firmly in bear market territory but that is a fraction of the pain in stocks and other [...]
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